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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 21-25

Long
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TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold closed flattish with a minor negative return after withstanding a week full of volatility. Gold plummeted nearly $24 in the early half of the week then recovered fully to hit fresh 9 month highs above the psychological $1300 barrier but failed to sustain as selling pressure pushed it back towards the support during the close. Gold was subject to the resistance of the $1300 mark and again failed to break the triple top on closing basis but it seems the downside is now limited as there is lot of news flow from America fueling gold prices.

On the chart –

Gold closed sideways with mild negative returns after having volatile moves on each side. Metal found resistance at $1300 which was on expected lines. Pivot point for gold has now changed to $1282 which if violated can see more downside. Gold is in an uptrending channel as lows were rejected suggesting limited downside and a good potential on the upside. There are 2 scenarios –

1. Gold having rejected the lows and creating a fresh 9 month high suggests the metal can have more upside. In an uptrending channel, gold can move higher to $1297 which is the major resistance of the triple top pattern. If this resistance is crossed gold can further climb higher to $1309. If this area is crossed gold can rally till $1319. Trend can only reverse if gold breaks the channel support at $1271.

2. Key levels such as $1300 do not get crossed with an ease, gold retreated after conquering $1300 which clearly suggests selling at high levels. There are no short trades unless gold breaks below $1282 which is a pivot point but again downside is limited to channel support at $1271 if $1282 gives way. Once the support at $1271 is broken gold can slide till $1261. If this area fails to hold gold can further move down towards $1254.

Bullish view – Bulls were on the charge once the price took support and then surged over $30 from the lows. This strong upward movement even took out the psychological barrier of $1300 which is a positive sign for the bulls. Prices are on the rising channel and it is expected to head higher as fundamentals keep on supporting the metal. Prices are expected to once again test $1300 and even higher until gold remains in the channel.

There are no short trades unless $1282 is broken, though main trades on the short side start only once the channel support at $1271 is broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish from neutral. Prices are expected to head higher and create fresh new highs.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1291 for the targets of $1297 and $1309 with a stop loss placed below $1282. Longer term target $1319.
Gold can be sold below $1282 for the targets of $1271 and $1261 with a stop loss placed above $1291. Longer term target $1254.
Comment:
Trade active
Comment:
First bullish target met at $1297

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