In many of my recent BTC analyses I've been talking about my view on the ETF. My prediction was that the ETF would be a sell-the-news event and mark a local top. Thus far, my view has been correct.
In this analysis I want to take a look at the Gold ETF and its effect on the short- and long-term price movement of the underlying asset Gold.
My short-term view on both ETF launches is as follows: - Whales (big banks and the like) buy the rumour. Likely, they have more knowledge about the ETF launching than the retail investors. - ETF launches, whales create hype around the ETF to lure retail in. - Whales sell their assets to retail, which drives the prices down.
As per Bitcoin, the correction has just started in my view. We can go much lower from this point.
However, this ETF is great news in the long-term. As seen on the bottom chart, Gold went up for almost 7 years after the ETF launch. I doubt that BTC will go up for 7 years, but the statistics don't lie. An ETF is a great way to lure more traders to the market.
Think about it, how many more people will buy crypto during bull-markets when it's as accessible as a stock? This ETF could very well put increasing bullish pressure on Bitcoin's price, potentially bringing the next-bull market top to unforeseen highs. A man can hope.
Share your thoughts about the short- and long-term price action of BTC after the ETF.
Interesting perspective on the potential impact of the Bitcoin ETF and its comparison to the Gold ETF. The analysis of whales buying the rumor and selling to retail during the ETF launch is insightful
ParabolicP
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Gold is unlimited btc isn’t.
Bylo-Selhi
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@ParabolicPanic where do you mine unlimited gold??? It's just as limited as bitcoin.
srvincent
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@Bylo-Selhi, The earth. Though gold mining is costly and time consuming, supply is infinite - Bitcoin is finite.
FieryTrading
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@srvincent, Interested to hear why you think an earthly metal is infinite.
Bylo-Selhi
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Even dirt isn't infinite on this planet bro. Nor oil, nor natural gas etc etc. Only fiat and its inflation. Check some geological facts.
FieryTrading
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@ParabolicPanic, Not true, unless we manage to mine some asteroid in the next 100 years.
srvincent
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@FieryTrading Infinite, relatively speaking, as it relates to our ability to extract Earth's availability of it. Only a fraction of gold is in the crust, much more in the mantle, most in the core. Point I was making is that gold is not "just as limited as Bitcoin", as @Bylo-Selhi states. Who knows what mining capabilities will be in 50-100 years from now. Not that hard to imagine what we may be able to achieve given humanity's proven innovations throughout history.