Gold's general commentary: Another High on the emerging Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel was testing the #1,848.80 mark quickly entered the critically Overbought territory as lagging upswing sequence is showing signs of exhaustion (besides random Bullish spikes which are instantly Sold). It is more than obvious that Gold’s Inflated Price-action can be corrected on #1 strong engulfing candle and with Fed’s statement leaving the rate unchanged (where I expect additional hawkish stance) should push Gold down on Lower levels and confirm the Bearish reversal. On the Russia - Ukraine political uncertainty, both correlating markets are moving on a much slower pace, where it is natural to expect a small pullback if the political matters aren’t resolved.
Technical analysis: As long as DX is not pressured by disappointing numbers I expect a smooth downfall / diagonal Trading towards #1,832.80 - #1,828.80 Support zone. Especially since Daily chart is about to turn Bearish again, where Death Cross formation is slowly but steadily emerging. As I warned lately that these are not normal market conditions and that I shouldn’t Trade on directional approach as the Fed’s statement would bring turbulence. I advise to seize all Trading activity (my sidelines decision proved to be excellent as there was nothing worth an entering on the last couple of sessions) and await until I get a good understanding of how the Fed intends to proceed with further hiking and how Investors will digest the meaning of the statement after the announcement. As market moves closer to the rate (with already Bearish Daily chart) the Price-action may start sloping Lower while spiking since the rate will most likely remain unchanged as there are no hints for further hikes in the near future. WIth another hawkish stance (at least for #Q1), I will Trade the #1,828.80 breakout once it occurs regardless of the Fed’s outcome. Dovish surprise on Fed statement can revive Buyers as Bond Yields will be pressured heavily, which may add enormous Buying pressure on Gold and postpone my expectations.
Fundamental analysis and my position: Once more Gold is being utilized as a safe-haven as Bond Yields were suffering significant losses. However as discussed, I am making use of the DX as my key indicator to suggest the underlying trend for Gold which remains fully Bearish, as the DX made a solid Technical Low recently and reversed strongly, assisted also by the Fed's expectations on the fight against Inflation. I am using Bond Yields aswell for Intra-day precise signals regarding my orders, as I never engage an order without consulting Yields chart. As I determined the trend, every rise towards the peak on Gold (once rejected of course) for me is excellent Selling opportunity as I will stick to this strategy for full Profit maximization. I expect Gold to just maintain this momentum, so that by early next week (and my expected scenario on the Fed aftermath) Gold should reach #1,811.80 second Support zone or below. Gold is consolidating so far as the DX reversed upwards (able to confirm Head and Shoulders formation) ahead of this week’s macro events. Investors are probably pricing in the worst case scenario of those missing on their forecast. This doesn't change my Bearish sentiment with both Short-term #1,811.80 and Medium-term #1,766.80 extension Targets. These calculations are for my Medium-term strategy for the next quarterly Monthly leg downwards that may test #1,750.80 psychological barrier within #30 sessions. I am not interested in Buying Gold and if #1,830.80 breaks ahead of the Fed statement, I will engage my Selling order (Targeting #1,811.80 Support). Otherwise, I will be carefully listening to Fed's statement and draw conclusions, where if rate decision and speech goes in my favour, I will Sell on spot, Targeting #1,828.80 first, and if invalidated, continue Selling towards my desired Profits range.