Get the feeling we might get to the neckline and fall back - so will be playing that as initial set up in next few months if we drop and bounce on the rising support around 1300. Reasons being expected short term main market weakness this year (= dollar strength) will likely hold gold in check for now...though with Trump et al also wanting a weak dollar it is only a matter of time before gold has its day. I would go long for short term around 1300 if there is a bounce but take some risk off the table at the neckline and then only go back in above or if it drops and bounces hard on the rising going back to Dec 2015. In the most scenario Gold might have to revisit 1040 or even 800s in next few years (before it has its time to shine in the sun) but that is not my main set-up at the moment.
I think we'll know which one of your proposed paths gold will take near the end of 2018 or first half of 2019 which is shown on your chart. My bias is to the upside.
I also noticed that the daily S&P 500 chart is starting to look like gold's price action back in 2011/2012. Just something interesting to note. We'll see how it plays out.