ptero1492

Gold and Sentiment, Turbo Bear?

My favorite ratio for cutting through the noise is an LT view of Gold /Oz($) : HUI (the Gold Bugs Index). Generally when it rises we gold bugs suffer because the price isn't reflecting our buying habits. That's why I'm looking for the next bottom on this chart sometime in July that might coincide with this broadening wedge ... A date that keeps recurring for me is June 28th, and I haven't figured why just yet..

The broadening wedge may indicate that some dramatic downside is very possible, I just hope that it's in late summer after some profit-taking. Reasons for hope here:

1] a breakdown from this channel is giving me hope, as sentiment is outstripping gold price performance.
2] it seems to coincide with deep retrace and ultimately a break below the 100Mo MA, the 30Wk Ma, and 30D Ma are firmly below. (Looking for the 30D to cross below 30Wk for TURBO BEAR)
3] downward cloud pressure is huge and respected at this time

See my previous post on GDX / Gold for another view at this pivotal time
Comment: My worst case is that the upward black swan movement will delay the bottoming of this chart. If that were to happen the faint midline of this broadening wedge could prove pivotal. For now, I breathe easy!

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