The markets simply refuse to give up. The birds are speaking to them, but nobody listens.
Gold, still living inside a massive bearish wedge pattern, is almost ready to print a death cross.
The 1M, 2M and 3M timeframes print a similar picture. The 2M chart is beginning to give in. Volatility between MAs is keeping these still glued together, unable to figure out the next move. Either the best Golden Cross prints or the worst Death is soon to come.
Markets are weird. I always found incredibly interesting the period before the .com bubble. Equities had just printed a death cross. After the post-1988 prolonged weakness, all support seemed to have been lost. Instead, the markets boomed.
It is at these extremes when the good and bad stuff happens.
I am getting annoyed from all the birds speaking, many of them bullish on gold, others bullish on equities.
The Gold Bird Everybody wants to keep this fella alive!
The SPX Bird Everybody wants to kill this poor fella!
With both birds SCREAMING, we cannot reach conclusions. Gold Bulls are buying into their ultimate doom. SPX Bears are selling into one of the most powerful bull runs we have witnessed.
It is the duel between them that will clear the picture. Honestly, it looks like a Gold Cross is about to shape for equities, not for Gold! Gold may instead take the black death-ish color.
Again, Buffett may be right after all... Japan + Oil = love-4-many-years
US Yield Rates show significant signs of strength.
The end of the 2nd Big Tech bubble is right around the corner...
Bird might be Peter's word. Don't be like Peter. Remember: Trend is the trader's word.
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So this is what the dream feels like. This is the victory we longed for. -Niko Bellic
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I'm calling it, Crude Oil prices below $40 in the following months. Ask for proof.
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Swan is the word.
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The same, it is just that price dislodged downwards. Let the war/crisis begin!
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Just like in 2018, we are begging for the FED to cut rates. It is ourselves who put the nail in our coffin.
Gold to house ratio is overblown... gold is tired... but it is also a basel tier 1 asset. Banks and governments want it up to level up. Only the rich hold gold.. or savvy investors. But yes looks dangerous... but so are bankers. Spx.. where did all the production come from to support these valuations? We were lockdown for over 2 years. Fundamentals have all bit disappeared. Hype, conjecture, insider trading, AI... it has gotten nuts. Ill chase sound money. Agricultural products grown on my farms. Wood to heat, bullets to hunt. Simple simon stuff. You want to fight tyranny?, you must live apart from its systems
akikostas
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@robed1, Live free! That's the only thing we can do. Grow farms if you can!!!
@The_Unwind, First of all, a theory. Crude oil prices depend on consumption. 2020 proved a period when a black swan caused a complete collapse of crude prices. It is either we believe that the economy goes well, therefore high demand for oil (higher prices), or we expect a financial crisis (reduced consumption). Secondly, long-term analysis.
A fundamental floor for crude oil is below 50. If we want a big move from oil, price must first seek buyers. And they live down there. Therefore a massive bull run of crude oil needs oil to visit this volume-defined price.
There are good signals from crude on 2M timeframe. The Monthly chart however is more precarious. Sub-monthly timeframes support the bearish outlook for the coming period.
The $40 target is 50% speculation and 50% truth. Price can easily spike down there, and perhaps keep low for an extended period of time. A massive bull run is several months away from being confirmed.
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@akikostas, Ok, the evidence presented is compelling for lower crude The analysis presented is persuasive/ fundamental/technical overview. However, from one who has tried to short crude, and has twice been badly burned in the trades, over a multi decade time frame, the overwhelming "risk" is some kind of "black swan". Sudden war, especially in the Mideast, or attack on the grid/pipeline, blockade resulting supply shutdown in the canals that transport crude, natural disasters to numerous to mention. Crude is held by the deepest, wealthiest countries/hedgers/ traders in the world Last I checked, there is no limit on how far crude could skyrocket in a single day, should a "black swan "event occur. I always trade "worst case scenario risk. That's how I've been able to hang on and survive over 40 years in the trading arena. Thank you for your illumination.
akikostas
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@The_Unwind, Thank YOU. I didn't know all of that about crude. That even though there is a fundamental bottom, there is no fundamental top. Incredible information!!! Do note that I am analyzing charts for 1.5 years, and not traded anything to keep analysis unbiased. I will seriously consider trading after all of this trip. Don't take ALL of what I say seriously. I am 25x less experienced than you and definitely less than half your years of age. I am just passionate with all of that!!!
akikostas
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@The_Unwind, In the not so distant future I will probably need your illumination to begin actual, serious trading.