MONTHLY CHART STILL LOOKS BEARISH WITH LATEST SWING HIGH GETTING REJECTED BY THE BEARISH KUMO AT THE 2/1 DOWN FAN ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE A WEAK BULLISH SIGNAL WITH PRICE BEING HELD ON THE TEKKAN SEN WHICH HAS RECENTLY CROSSED ABOVE THE KINJUN
LOOKING AT THE WEEKLY CHART WE CAN ASSUME THAT WE ARE STILL BEARISH WITH PRICE RECENTLY BEING REJECTED BY THE BLUE 2/1 DOWN FAN AND STRONGLY FALLING THROUGH SEP WITH RISING OIL 0.43% PRICES AND CURRENT BEARISH DIVERGENCE FROM THE LATEST SWING POINTS HIGHLIGHTED IN PURPLE ALSO TEKKEN SEN LOOKING TO CROSS DOWN KINJUN SEN.
FROM THE CHART WE CAN IDENTIFY SOME KEY REVERSAL POINTS ON OR AROUND THE SEP AND JAN MONTHS THE 2/1 FAN LINE IS ACTING AS A STRONG LONG TERM UPWARDS SUPPORT WHERE WE HAD A GOOD BOUNCE OFF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR WHEN THE GREY 1/1 DOWN FAN MET THE UPWARDS LIGHT BLUE 2/1. NOTE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPTREND IN 2007 AROUND THE TIME RATE HIKES BEGAN TO DECREASE THERE WAS A GOOD RALLY WHICH THEN FELL RETRACING 88.6% TO RETEST START OF TREND PRICE THE RALLIED AGAIN AROUND THE DEMOCRATIC VICTORY WHEN OBAMA REKINDLED US HOPES.
FROM HERE WE HAD A GOOD UPTREND PEAKING IN 2011. WHERE WE CAN SEE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AT THE START OF THE DOWNTREND WHERE PRICE RETRACED ALMOST 80% AGAIN TO RETEST THE HIGH BOUNCING OFF THE 2/1 FAN AROUND THE TIME OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS WON 2ND TERM IN OFFICE THIS TIME HAVING THE OPPOSITE EFFECT WITH GOLD 0.02% PRICES CONTINUING TO FALL ALTHOUGH IT WAS A MUCH CLEARER VICTORY THAN THE FIRST.
WHICH BRINGS US TO OUR LATEST TREND TO ME IT APPEARS WE HAVE ANOTHER SIMILAR PATTERN FORMING WITH SIMILAR RSI UNFOLDING AND THE DOWNTREND SEEMINGLY ENDING AT THE 2/1 UP FAN WHERE WE HAD A GREAT RUN AT START OF YEAR BOUNCING TO THE 2/1 DOWNFAN WHERE IT GOT REJECTED. IF HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF I THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER 80% RETRACE REVISITING THAT 2/1 SUPPORT AS PRICES FALL WITH RATE HIKES AND WHO KNOWS WHAT EFFECTS ELECTIONS MAY HAVE EVERYTHING SEEMS TO TIE IN WITH STRUCTURE TO ME. BUT IF PRICE DOES CONTINUE TO FALL THEN WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG RALLY PROBABLY TOWARDS THE END OF JANUARY WHEN THE CHINESE NEW KICKS IN.
MY OVERALL TARGET IS AROUND $1500 @ THE 4/1 DOWNFAN WHICH IS A 61.8% RETRACEMENT OF THE PREVIOUS UPTREND.
ALSO TO NOTE PRICE IS CONVERGING BETWEEN THE 2/1'S SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD BE IN A TRIANGLE FOR SOME TIME UNTIL WE BREAKOUT.
REMEMBER THIS IS JUST SPECULATIVE IM NOT OFFERING ANY SIGNALS HERE JUST SOME PERSONAL VIEWS AND A WAY TO LOOK BACK TO SEE HOW ELECTIONS AND FED MAY HAVE TOOK EFFECT. IM CURRENTLY STILL SHORT SO ITS A RISK FREE TRADE FOR ME
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NOTE SOME DRAWINGS HAVE MOVED SLIGHTLY BIG GREEN RING WAS TOUCHING RED UP ARROW RSI DIV WAS GREATER ON LEFT PURPLE LINE SHOULD MARK START OF TREND AT 2007 POINT
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MONTHLY BEARISH VIEW WITH NEGATIVE DMI LOOKING TO CROSS, WEEKLY DMI IS ALREADY NEGATIVE
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DAILY VIEW WE COULD BE READY FOR SOME MOVEMENT HERE WITH TRIANGLE BREAKOUT
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Traznor
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what does it mean negative DMI tool?
wolfstreetswinger
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Hi dmi is a directional movement tool it can show us how strong a trend is and in what direction it may be going generally if the di+ blue line is above di- red line we are bullish and opposite if the red line di- is above blue line di+ we are bearish. my adx line isnt included here but if adx being 25+ is a good signal the trend is strong. So if adx is around 25+ and our lines cross this can give us a good bullish or bearish signal