Yesterday’s ADP National Employment Report posted a gain of 177k in private payrolls for August, once again almost perfectly even with expectations, as the market consensus was for 175k. That suggests no change to expectations for Friday's BLS Employment Situation Report, with the consensus there looking for a private payrolls increase of 178k.
If these numbers are a good indication of where the BLS ends up, it means that jobs report would not significantly affect the chances that the FOMC will move in September, currently seen as a bit less likely than a wait for December.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a non-voting member of the Fed, said he would like to see core rise before the Federal Open Market Committee raises interest rates.
If Friday’s US jobs data is going to be good, gold may fall to 1,260-1,270 levels as markets will hope for a rate hike in September. This could be a good level to open a long position.
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