please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion.
Current price: 1759
===================Analysis=================
On Last Friday, Gold reached 1780 to complete wave-c due to the effect of NFP news, but then reversed quickly and down to 1751 in the early morning of today.
Now it brings a confusing question, is it bullish or bearish?
Let's list a few facts in order to draw the conclusion:
1. Gold broke the big descending trendline, and retest it at point B ==> bullish signal 2. The H4 candle broke 1768 resistence once and touched 1780, but dropped back again in next H4 candle ==> weak or fake breakout 3. The daily bar closed as cross last Friday ==> reverse signal 4. 1746 - 1750 area have been a strong support area since last week. ==> bearish confirmation point
So, we can see both bear or bull effects, but neither of them is confirmed, which indicates that we are still in the Ranging Market. Usually once a complete 8-wave cycle finished, there will be a period of chaos of future direction.
Because the last drop is dip and straight (1780 -> 1751), we can expect in short term (which means intraday), some corrections might happen.
And the key resistence for this range is: 1765 , 1770
So here are a few situations:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold reaches 1765 - 1770 and then drop back agin to 1751 area No.2 Some mysterical power come in and push Gold to 1780 again. No.3 Gold drops back to 1751 area and then bounce again, and create a new range for correction.
Here's my P.S: I'm NOT trying to predict the market move. As a trader (not analyst), we need to know how to trade in different conditions, but not predict the conditions.
I think gold will go to 1765 then drop down to 46 and maybe lower to 38 the big support there if from there go high and break 1770 we will see 1800 soon but if break 1738 we will see 1720 to 1716 to support