goldenBear88

Gold still Trading within Neutral layers of #1,820's

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: Gold manages to keep the High levels despite the stabilization on Bond Yields market and very sharp drop (which is slowly corrected) on DX , as both DX and the Bond Yields mild recovery provided decent Support on Gold and new consolidation candles messenger. Especially the fact that the Bond Yields broken the Lower Resistance on Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel (which is a good sign for Gold’s Sellers), makes Gold switch from Bearish to Neutral on the Short-term, with it's own Hourly 1 chart having regained complete Neutral status for the first time since December #2. This side Swings that I am witnessing are consolidation candles. Furthest line of the rise is #1,832.80 (Daily chart’s Resistance zone and possible Quadruple Top), if broken, could result as an uptrend extension with a Top above #1,852.80 psychological barrier (less likely). As long as that line is intact, Top Selling strategy is favoured, where every rise towards Weekly peak’s represents Selling opportunity. However, on the other side aswell / every Support rejection, Gold will have visible Buying pressure and accumulation. As soon as the new market dynamics, post Fed, find their prior balance, Gold can resume its steady Medium-term downtrend.


Fundamental analysis: Gold continues to consolidate on the Hourly 4 chart being unable to extend the candle above Resistance cluster variance. This time however the Hourly 1 chart’s configuration is coming strong from below to offer potential Support at #1,812.80. If the market closes above it, then more than likely the Daily chart’s Quadruple Top formation will potentially be tested within current Trading week (currently at #1,826.80 - #1,832.80). A break above it paves the way for #1,852.80, while a Daily market closing below the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,821.80 opens the way for #1,792.80 - #1,800.80 fractal . It is important (since the DX remains weak on the Daily chart ) to keep an eye on the Bond Yields which early on throughout today's session, came too close to it's Daily chart’s Lower Low's rejection and now is Trading on parabolic uptrend. I give more probabilities to the downside, #1,792.80 Higher Low's test extension, but it is still too early for me to execute the order. Gold keeps close track of the DX (strongest correlation I have at the moment) and Bond Yields (# +1.19%), as in the absence of macro-economic news, correlating assets are consolidating, ignoring though the Usd-Jpy Trading near the Resistance (on Short-term recovery candles, # +0.27%), which showcases that Gold continues to be detached from Usd-Jpy and follows DX / Bond Yields mostly where rallies don’t (as for the current configuration at least) translate into equal rallies on Gold as long as DX isn't falling (means that Gold has to have confirmation both assets for pricing a major move). Gold is not too close to the Daily chart's #MA50 (which was broken only twice since January #4) and this is not the time to take wild bets on the market, that is obviously waiting for catalysts to move.


Technical analysis: Today’s U.S. session aswell should have Buying sentiment (as even though market closed below #1,821.80 Resistance throughout the Friday's session), Gold is Trading under Buying pressure, but as I cannot rule out Bearish reversal followed by Selling sequence, I am comfortably on sidelines, waiting for the breakout and closely observing the Price-action. It is important to note that Gold is cyclical asset and what caught my attention is current (#6-Month old) fractal . Gold tends to engage the aggressive takedown after Double Top (Triple and Quadruple aswell) rejection on Daily chart . Throughout May #26 - July #11 fractal , Gold made an Double Top break attempt but got rejected and engaged the #140 point decline. On July #15 - August #8 fractal , Price-action made an Double Top formation and engaged the (almost #150 point) slide. Similar fractal could be repeated now, and if Gold honours it, I am looking at decent possibility of #1,678.80 Lower Low extension test, and break of can put final Selling extension in motion, currently Trading on #1,585.80 (April #6, #2020) Low. Regarding the RSI indicator (strongly limiting the uptrend), variable is close to Medium-term Resistance, which is rejecting the Price-action since November #22. Means that Gold should be Pricing a Top (temporarily or not) soon and engage the Selling sequence. I will patiently await for #1,812.80 Support break to pursue #1,792.80 extension with my Selling order, while Buying at the moment is Technically - Highly dangerous since Buyers have more than #2 strong Resistances ahead. I will Buy Gold only if #1,832.80 breaks on aggressive manner and market closes comfortably above it.

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Professional market analyst and Financial consultant with over #8 Years experience. I specialize Gold market using specific proven mathematical models. I provide market insights and Professional guidance.
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