Gold's general commentary: Yesterday's E.U. session brought Idle price-action, as market sentiment awaited Jobless Claims report, for now Gold is ignoring DX which is Trading on heavy gains, breaking the Medium-term Resistance priced at #94.250- #94.300. Gold found it's correlation with Bond Yields and partly with Usd-Jpy on a Short-term. MACD indicates that Gold is still Bearish on Hourly 4 chart according to correlating assets, Price-action is more Neutral for now as I am expecting test of #1,792.80 and most likely #1800.80 before my main High impact Fundamental catalyst of NFP will be released. My expectations is that NFP report could be positive (numbers greater than current) and spike up Bond Yields which may bring another Bearish wave on Gold. If #1,782.80 breaks, next extension is #1,761.80.
Technical analysis: Eventually the Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel delivered strong impulse and as the Price-action made a Lower High Lower zone attempt above #1,782.80 first Resistance throughout E.U. session, it Naturally initiated the aggressive Bullish leg towards the Higher High’s trendline (well Supported by Low’s on Bond Yields). The Hourly 4 Resistance is now priced at #1,795.80- #1,798.70 and should work as the Resistance in order to complete the Bullish sequence which is calling for a second Higher High extension around the #1,812.80. Even though the Lower zone of Higher High's is Trading at #1,798.80, breaking of mentioned configuration would invalidate the Technical Selling potential, as the Intra-day Bearish trend would not resume and will come to an end (at least for current session). In my opinion if the #1,798.80 Resistance breaks, Gold should spike towards #1,812.80, and break of can test #1,823.80 variance and above (below January #21 - January #29 Double Top zone). Current Price-action points to a no call zone for me, especially ahead of heavy Fundamental announcement on agenda. Keep in mind that I am expecting an #140 point decline ahead within #60 sessions and that Q4 should be Bearish fractal for Gold. Since trend can change on Hourly basis regarding Bond Yields (having direct impact on Gold) I will approach current market sentiment with extreme care and with breakout points / confirmations. I am on sidelines at the moment for more than #5 sessions, as my main aim was to protect my capital from sudden change of trends, as I will continue Trading (having my margin ready) once when market returns to normal conditions. If however, NFP delivers greater number than expected, I will be ready to Sell Gold on spot towards #1,761.80.
Is this the breakout everyone was waiting for? Wonder if it will hold above 1800 which we have seen as a major resistance level. Basel 3 has to be competed by end of this year so I wonder if they will manipulate the paper market so they can buy more physical?