Thanks for viewing.
Just a quick post to share my count, position and why I entered.
Count: You can see my count, let's see if it bears out. If not I will get stopped out at or close to break even and look to re-enter. I had a lot of trouble with this count and I am still a little uncertain about the wave 1 peak on the earlier downtrend.
Position: My two entries are the red dashed lines - one of which is in profit, and the other is a little ways off - currently -25% - but reducing now (phew).
Why: I was expecting some resistance from the wave 1 peak and from the 0.618 - 0.65 fib retracement level (red box). I had entered earlier at $1292 but got stopped out for a 17% loss. Also, I am bearish on gold (not generally but in the short to medium term). USD has been weakening recently I'm told and that may have helped the strong rally, but GOLD doesn't always go up when the dollar weakens (or the vice versa). I see the momentum is down and that will take a bit of turning around.
The price action between about June 2016 and May last year as being a wave B triangle that would indicate continuation of the down-trend (putting it about half way into the down-trend). If that turns out to be the case, then the move from $1340 to $1160ish was wave (1) down and I am hoping that I have caught the wave (2) peak. If so, and I really really hope I am right, I may just be able to ride this down to the sub $700 levels (maybe as low as $550). Now I admit this probably flies in the face of any fundamental analysis (which I don't do), with a global slowdown (and possibly worse) coming up over the next couple of years, global equity market bear markets starting, US government shutdown etc etc (this was supposed to be a short post - not an essay). But, if I have learnt anything from the market it is: it does what you don't expect it to - and it isn't always tightly tethered to fundamentals (which is why I am shorting USD/JPY and gold - two things that are not supposed to be going down at the same time).
Now after all that, I hope I don't get stopped out in a big rally to new all time highs lol.
Protect those funds.
Just a quick post to share my count, position and why I entered.
Count: You can see my count, let's see if it bears out. If not I will get stopped out at or close to break even and look to re-enter. I had a lot of trouble with this count and I am still a little uncertain about the wave 1 peak on the earlier downtrend.
Position: My two entries are the red dashed lines - one of which is in profit, and the other is a little ways off - currently -25% - but reducing now (phew).
Why: I was expecting some resistance from the wave 1 peak and from the 0.618 - 0.65 fib retracement level (red box). I had entered earlier at $1292 but got stopped out for a 17% loss. Also, I am bearish on gold (not generally but in the short to medium term). USD has been weakening recently I'm told and that may have helped the strong rally, but GOLD doesn't always go up when the dollar weakens (or the vice versa). I see the momentum is down and that will take a bit of turning around.
The price action between about June 2016 and May last year as being a wave B triangle that would indicate continuation of the down-trend (putting it about half way into the down-trend). If that turns out to be the case, then the move from $1340 to $1160ish was wave (1) down and I am hoping that I have caught the wave (2) peak. If so, and I really really hope I am right, I may just be able to ride this down to the sub $700 levels (maybe as low as $550). Now I admit this probably flies in the face of any fundamental analysis (which I don't do), with a global slowdown (and possibly worse) coming up over the next couple of years, global equity market bear markets starting, US government shutdown etc etc (this was supposed to be a short post - not an essay). But, if I have learnt anything from the market it is: it does what you don't expect it to - and it isn't always tightly tethered to fundamentals (which is why I am shorting USD/JPY and gold - two things that are not supposed to be going down at the same time).
Now after all that, I hope I don't get stopped out in a big rally to new all time highs lol.
Protect those funds.
Comment:
This position has been quite hard to hold onto, finally there is a strong wave down
Trade closed manually:
Unfortunately I passed up 165% profit twice. But luckily I was holding one short and trading the other. So ended up making profit - just not nearly as much as I was hoping for. I'm out of gold for a little while until a wave count becomes simpler. What is seems more likely is that this was a simple zig-zag correction for wave 4.