This idea has merit. However it ignores the trend. What is the trend? Trading 101. higher lows higher highs. Why go short without confirmation?
Price action remains on top of the Gaussian channel on the 2-week, short that at your peril. There's no sell signal, there's no lower highs, and price action has recently broken out of long resistance.
CBMMR
⋅
@without_worries, Puts are up 500%. What do you think they'll be up after it breaks the trend? Trading 101: Bet on a more than 6x increase in a purely extrinsic asset, unfavorable to all major economic entities as those same entities bend believers over a splintered barrel.
CBMMR
⋅
@without_worries, What resistance was broken? PA wicked off literally the only resistance line on the chart thrice.
without_worries
⋅
@CBMMR, Seems like a breakout of market structure on the 10-day with bearish divergence. I'd look for support around the $15-16 area. Even still, there was no buy signal. For me, no buy = no action, too risky otherwise.
Yes, Put contracts have exploded. My impression is the put contract holders are betting the wrong way.
CBMMR
⋅
@without_worries, You've had a thread running for months that Bitcoin will run to 120k, and as it sits just off its 52 week low you're willing to say those short are betting the wrong way?
without_worries
⋅
@CBMMR, Big time. Everyone is wrong, to use a Michael Burry phrase.
Actually the thread has been running for 10 weeks. But I understand it feels longer when things are going side ways.
I’ve studied the last 80 years of stock data. I’m sad like that. Yes, the herd is betting the wrong way, which will likely kick off a massive short squeeze.
S&P 500 Double bottom
Spot the difference. “This time it’s different” they scream.
1962
Today
The most hilarious part of all of this.. is the smart money / hedge funds. They are massively ‘short’
From Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader
“Last week, traders of fifty or more contract bought to open nearly five million put options. More importantly, they spent a whopping $8.1 billion on those contracts. That is almost double the amount of any other week in 22 years”
Never in 40 years has there be this much betting for a massive stock market crash. The so called smart money.
CBMMR
⋅
@without_worries, The S&P is down 13% in the past month. If you've studied the last 80 years of stock data, why are you only talking crypto? If your studies were adequate, you'd support the literal antithesis of your thread.
CBMMR
⋅
@CBMMR, Plus, I've been getting your useless, burdensome updates for like half a year so don't even act like you hopped on the long train that shortly before the rip in equities.
without_worries
⋅
@CBMMR, "The S&P is down 13% in the past month." Or as I like to say, the S&P is at 0% gain where I publish the long idea.
What literal antithesis of what thread?
CBMMR
⋅
@without_worries, That's a sick long, bummed I missed it. What's the YTD?
Price action remains on top of the Gaussian channel on the 2-week, short that at your peril. There's no sell signal, there's no lower highs, and price action has recently broken out of long resistance.