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GRPN - Good, Bad, or Ugly, $48 Just Makes Sense

Short
NASDAQ:GRPN   Groupon, Inc
Whether GRPN goes on to have it's best year, worst year, or just hovers around expectations, $48-$49 confirms path for all of these results.

First - Just some fundamentals that match up with technicals:

-Currently, the market is factoring in an upcoming earnings EPS equal to pre-covid (November 2019) numbers of roughly -$0.60.
-The yearly EPS for 2019 was $0.30 and the estimated EPS for GRPN in 2021 is $0.33. A year in which GRPN traded from the range of $78 to $47.
In saying this, the share price can move freely between this range depending on which way the technicals push price action - without getting over extended from this range.
-In GRPN's best year, it traded with an EPS of $0. 40 at a P/E of 255 ($102 price target)

If technicals indicate a move up, demand will be there to confirm the move due to the current sentiment of a positive financial year. If the technicals show a push to the downside there also shouldn't be much resistance to supply due to the uncertainty GRPN has moving forward.

Chart posted above shows an anticipated breakdown to $48-$49 due to a confirmation of a diamond top formation. Below further explains the bottom price target.

Now lets look more into this move.
(with anticipated low $48 used as the 0.00 FIB)
A pullback to the $48-$49 range; allows a fill of the gap up, reach of lower trendline support, and sets a good bottom FIB number to keep from getting too extended out of the current trendline. All within the same move. Also this allows for a test of the upper mid-line channel of previous overhead trends. Furthermore, if GRPN goes on the have year where they meet expectations, market makers can move price through the trend without shaking out too many investors (keeping price action within upward trend). While still reaching the EPS based price target by end of year ($78).

If, GRPN goes on the have their best year:
(with cup and handle extension drawn)

The pullback to $48-$49 confirms retracement to the 1.272 FIB level of the cup and handle as support (would indicate to investors a strong potential for upside), while also holding the lower trendline as support.

If they have a bad year, its going down to $48 anyways.
Trade active: Long put entry.

update linked below

**Never financial advice

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