Right now, Oil is very -- HOWEVER, if it pushes back to the high 49s/bar, what we expect to see is a strong Dikembe Mutombo-level rejection of that value...From that rejection, the SHORT would be relying on a sell-off from the more impatient investors (which abound). There will be a shakeout of investors, and most will feel good accepting a small gain or loss, but when the bottom falls out of oil w/ COVID spikes inevitable, it will be too late for those who thought they could react just before it "got really bad."
To hit June or Sept lows, we need to chart oil and spot its resistance for what it is (49.88 is the I keep going back to).
This is so far from advice, that it is more akin brainstorming!
While it is likely this trader place a long put on $HAL, it could just as easily be placed on $GUSH (an for oil 2x bull run), which has a direct reaction and correlation to $USOIL prices, unlike Halliburton and Liberty, which have a correlation, but one that at times proves to be weak or not as statistically significant.
And for those of you out hunting bears like me right now, make sure your fly is up and your shots are straight, because most bulls are going to be caught naked as this bull run (that has lasted since late March) comes to its close. The notion on every one of their parts is that they'll get out "Just before that happens." Um, c'est la vie, because it's difficult to sell things plummeting as the speed of sound.
Right now we're artificially floated by some stim checks; it is an economy booster...but THE CRASH will only be that much more forceful due to the "free money" (Note: Most people think it really is a check without repercussions, and for some, it might be!).
That said, go take a walk, get some fresh air, and if "You" still disagree with my sentiments by that point you'll (at least) be closer to accepting that everything has its end--Including this COVID SEASON Bull run.
Bear sh*t, Bullsh*t, It's all just fancy guesswork really...GO GET IT, traders.
SEE RELATED IDEA Re: the full "Crapping" of the S&P and global mkts below