So many similarities remain from 2008 and now, have to say them, and play them...
Oil started to crash, HAL its economic representative did also, and the dollar jumped upward historically, gold plunged.
Preceeding all that was a very nice ABC wave, and the same happened in 2011, and the same happened before this last bull run.
Then we went down hard in a clear ABC, as he dollar headed up, the markets lagged a bit, then turned down.
Remarkable how the B of the abc uptrend coincides with the C of the abc downturns. and both of these pivot points coincide with the long term support lines, which were broken at C. I have offset the most recent ABC down so you can see the chart lines.
The thin red vertical lines represent where we are now, and were we were in 2008 that relates to now.
Note the MACD has room to run lower (for HAL) as well as the RSI.
If you measure the AB and CD legs of these moves, HAL should , if we repeat 2008, head toward D as shown.
I believe we are in the green circles now, and NOTE the red triangle hard V, both just recently and 20087, right before the markets crashed. There have not been that many hard V's over the past 15 years, and these two seem to be the most pronounced and the up leg is straight as an arrow. I believe this last V pivot was simply because of algoryhtmic trading, because we reach the long term trend support line, and wammo, bounced right on que. However, Oil is having its own ideas and its say.
So unless something different happens, and opec decided out of character to cut, we go lower. And the markets have to follow at some point.
Heard Cramer say after this last employment report, being so good that there are no more hurdles or events to drag the markets down until after the new year, not even a government shut down from the budget funding battles. He says its happy sailing for the next 30 days at least. I say, he's a fool. There is way too much turnmoil everywhere, and all it takes is one idiot from one of the many groups protesting whatever, in whatever country (take your pic), to set off something that strikes fear to the markets. Jamie Diamond said, the thing that keeps him up at night is the thing that he cannot see coming, to wreck the ship.
The EURUSD wants to go higher, and has been held down way too long. The dollar could go higher, and if oil keeps on sliding it will until its inevitable doom, and crash lower with the rest of world wide assets, and it may be the last to fall. Heck, the dollar could also crash come Monday too, not sure.
There is way more I could say, but the chart says it all for now. How can you look at this and not say it has some merit.
I called for HAL to reach 40 a while back and it has. Made a few bucks on those nice moves (12X). I laid in some calls to retest 47, and decided to bail on that, glad I did. HAL (and CAT) should have retested, and THEY DID NOT! If oil were to bounce here, the bull might still have some legs, but I don't think it does, and we head at least down, maybe to the IWM new channel support trend line. The dollar could go higher, and jobs could increase, but since the FED knows they CANNOT RAISE RATES, wage inflation kicks in way sooner than anyone thought, heck its already kicking in now, that GOLD senses it and pops, and the markets smell it quick, and the bull is abandonded, selling to save the great profits earned during the run.
Safe trading everyone. These are just my opinions, for what they are worth.
Comments
jangseohee
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I don know about ABCD but its a good analysis
dp
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I'm not an expert by any measure as Mickette is, but here are some sources: