Hedera Daily: Beware of the Bearish Dragon Pattern

In my previous article, I focused on Elliott Wave counts for HBAR.
[Are we sending HBAR higher or in Buy The Dip mode?](tradingview.com/chart/HBARUSD/6TZQynDm-Are-we-sending-HBAR-higher-or-in-Buy-The-Dip-mode/)

This time, I’ll approach the analysis from a different perspective:

1. **Dragon Pattern**
2. **Weekly Candlesticks**
3. **Parallel Channel**
4. **Oscillator**
5. **Fundamentals**
6. **Key Levels**
7. **Short-term Forecast and My Position**

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### 1. Dragon Pattern

The Hedera daily chart suggests a bearish “Dragon Pattern” forming. For a reference on a previous Dragon Pattern in Bitcoin, see:
[Bearish Dragon Pattern Unfolding—Beware of Increasing Momentum](tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/hEpKn0E5-Bearish-Dragon-Pattern-Unfolding-Beware-of-Increasing-Momentum/)

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### 2. Weekly Candlesticks and the Dow Theory on the daily

Overlaying the weekly candlesticks schematically also indicates a clear bearish bias. Unless the weekly candle closes bullish—or at least recovers to 31 cents—the continuation of the downtrend looks very likely. The daily lower-low in the Dow Theory we already have might emphasize the bearish sentiment more.

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### 3. Parallel Channel

The price has dropped below the yellow line on the diagonal parallel channel. The following likely targets appear to be the light blue or gray lines. Considering this, it seems natural to expect a move toward the green box, although the path may involve some fluctuations.

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### 4. Oscillator

At the same time, the oscillator values remain at their respective low levels, suggesting a scenario where any downward move might be more gradual than abrupt. However, such a steep decline itself isn't excluded at the extreme of oscillator values.

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### 5. Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, overall market sentiment is pessimistic, influenced by the DeepSeek shock and U.S. tariff concerns, making a short-term return to optimism seem unlikely. However, from a TA perspective, this aligns with the scenario many have been anticipating. If a decline materializes now, it may reflect the market providing its catalyst.

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### 6. Key Levels

On the downside, the area near the 23-cent low is almost particular to command attention. I watch around 17.5 cents (the top of the green box). If the price does reach this level, panic selling could spark wicks down into the 15-cent region. Although the bottom of the box is around 12.6 cents—and the likelihood of dropping that far seems slim—long-term HBAR holders like myself would welcome the opportunity.

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### 7. Short-term Forecast and My Position

As I posted on X (formerly Twitter), I’m currently short 34.5 cents and plan to take profits around 17.9 cents. Since a minor bounce could happen first, I don’t intend to add to my short position at this level. My spot buy orders are scattered from around 24 to 15 cents, illustrating my long-term bullish stance on Hedera.

For a bullish take, feel free to check out my earlier analysis (admittedly a bit optimistic, but I’m confident in the overall movement):
[The Future of Hedera Hashgraph Speculated](tradingview.com/chart/HBARUSD/EiQ3nwYS-The-Future-of-Hedera-Hashgraph-Speculated/)