Copper monthly break out or fail?

COMEX:HG1!   Copper Futures
14 0 0
Big bounce on the 200ema on the monthly continuous right to the major downtrend from 2011.

Breaking through the trend line seem unlikely as the economy is rolling over and the rest of the metals are getting killed. The big run on copper             came out of the China bull story from 2005-2011.

There seems to be a lack of real demand, both in the real world and in the market, in order to validate copper             over ~3.00 and I think the COT is showing that: http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/HG.png

No position yet. Just watching but leaning short.
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