I don't really watch commodities, so this is something new for me.
There are many ways to call the pattern in this chart. One could say it is a descending triangle, or a tripple bottom, or a double bottom...so i'll not give it a name, I am just going to explain what I see.
Most imporant, I see a round level at 3000, acting as a great support. It has been broken and rejected too many times. Around this level I can spot three selling phases : 1 - fast and deep 2 - slow and less deep, but still quite strong 3 - fast and shallow
Instead of using the MACD, I chose the Force Index which includes volume in its calculation. Notice how the three selling climaxes diverge, drawing shallower bottoms. This, together with the decreasing selling magnitude, tells me that bears have lost power and a bounce is probable.
On both indicators we have bullish divergences, pointing out the decreasing power of bears.
I will set my target at the first strong resistance zone, as this is a new approach and I don't want to be extra confident. I will enter long using the daily chart of copper, when I see fit, because the current situation looks bearish for the next few days.
Comments
Mirandole
⋅
It looks like futur speculation !
OldGoat
⋅
I like your analysis. Thank you.
There appears to be a Bullish Shark in the daily that coincides with your projections.
vlad.adrian
⋅
Thank you! My expectations are much higher than the shark target, but ofc I'm looking at another timeframe. On the daily, I'm waiting for a buy signal.
OldGoat
⋅
The 3.1240 is just an initial, minimum target. The 618 retrace looks to coincide with your downward trendline at 3.2605 (or the 707 at 3.3080 if the action is fast). These are just signposts along the way to your higher target. I'm not comfortable with the drawdowns on the weekly and prefer to move in and out as the path zigzags.
vlad.adrian
⋅
I agree! I hope that trendline wont show too much resistance