Since 1983, there have been many calls for Hong Kong to change its HKD peg. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze HKD amid de-dollarisation.
HKD is like a ‘stablecoin’ “The decline in the HKD aggregate balance is unlikely to cause market panic. Once the HIBOR-LIBOR gap narrows, HKD outflow pressures will be alleviated. The HKD peg to the USD is defended via changes in the cost of carry.”
“Pegging HKD to the RMB does not add value to China’s development as there is already a CNH market. Instead, HKD is a reserve currency candidate backed by solid financial infrastructure and freely convertible exchange rate regime.” “The HKD peg is akin to a ‘stable coin’ as its value is tied to a reference asset. Blockchain technology and the tokenisation of government bonds will increase the security qualities and make it more attractive to investors who seek diversification from the conventional dollarised regime in the digital era.”
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Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI
The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.” The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded. Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).
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Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI
The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.” The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded. Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).
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Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases
The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%).
Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly NZX Trades Slightly Higher New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low Argentina Indicators Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23 Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23 Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23 Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23 Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23 Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23 Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23 Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22 Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22 The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.
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The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.
What happens next is therefore crucial.
If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.
The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.
This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.
The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.
To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.
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Week Ahead - July 17th
Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
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China New Home Prices Flatten in June
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing prope
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Brazilian Stocks Fall to Finish Week on Sour Note Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell 1.3% to close at 117,698 marks on Friday, after a report that showed retail sales in Brazil unexpectedly decreased in May. Brazil's retail sales fell 1% in May from a month earlier, the first decrease since December. Among single stocks, BRF tumbled 7.4% after pricing its stock offering at 9 reais per share, raising 5.4 billion reais. Also, GOL declined 6% due to forecasts indicating a loss in the second quarter and Azul slipped by 6.5%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight Petrobras lost 2.3% in line with the downward movement of oil prices. On the other hand, Méliuz surged 14.1% after closing at a record low the day before. For the week, the Ibovespa went down by 1%.
China New Home Prices Flatten in June Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.
Shares in New Zealand fell 15 points or 0.13% to 11,998 in early trading at the start of the week, slightly retreating from a nearly 2-month peak hit in the prior session, amid losses from non-energy minerals, industrial services, and transport. A decline in US stock futures rattled sentiment after Wall Street closed mostly lower Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a 4-day win streak, as investors digested bank earnings. Traders also took a cautious stance ahead of a flurry of economic data from China later in the day, including Q2 GDP readings, with concerns growing that the post-pandemic bounce is rapidly losing momentum. US Natgas Prices Fall to 1-Month Low Colombia Industrial Output Falls Less than Expected Manufacturing production in Columbia sank by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2023, following a 6.4% decline in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 4.9% contraction. The downturn added to recent evidence that the Colombian economy is succumbing to the aggressive interest rate hikes from its central bank. Output fell primarily for paper products (-15.1%), beverages (-11.2%), chemical products (-14.7%), and textiles (-22.1%).
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YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data
China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates
The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month.
Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data
Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon. China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data
The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).
Brazilian Stocks Fall to Finish Week on Sour Note Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell 1.3% to close at 117,698 marks on Friday, after a report that showed retail sales in Brazil unexpectedly decreased in May. Brazil's retail sales fell 1% in May from a month earlier, the first decrease since December. Among single stocks, BRF tumbled 7.4% after pricing its stock offering at 9 reais per share, raising 5.4 billion reais. Also, GOL declined 6% due to forecasts indicating a loss in the second quarter and Azul slipped by 6.5%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight Petrobras lost 2.3% in line with the downward movement of oil prices. On the other hand, Méliuz surged 14.1% after closing at a record low the day before. For the week, the Ibovespa went down by 1%.
China New Home Prices Flatten in June Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.
Shares in New Zealand fell 15 points or 0.13% to 11,998 in early trading at the start of the week, slightly retreating from a nearly 2-month peak hit in the prior session, amid losses from non-energy minerals, industrial services, and transport. A decline in US stock futures rattled sentiment after Wall Street closed mostly lower Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a 4-day win streak, as investors digested bank earnings. Traders also took a cautious stance ahead of a flurry of economic data from China later in the day, including Q2 GDP readings, with concerns growing that the post-pandemic bounce is rapidly losing momentum. US Natgas Prices Fall to 1-Month Low Colombia Industrial Output Falls Less than Expected Manufacturing production in Columbia sank by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2023, following a 6.4% decline in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 4.9% contraction. The downturn added to recent evidence that the Colombian economy is succumbing to the aggressive interest rate hikes from its central bank. Output fell primarily for paper products (-15.1%), beverages (-11.2%), chemical products (-14.7%), and textiles (-22.1%).
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell 1.3% to close at 117,698 marks on Friday, after a report that showed retail sales in Brazil unexpectedly decreased in May. Brazil's retail sales fell 1% in May from a month earlier, the first decrease since December. Among single stocks, BRF tumbled 7.4% after pricing its stock offering at 9 reais per share, raising 5.4 billion reais. Also, GOL declined 6% due to forecasts indicating a loss in the second quarter and Azul slipped by 6.5%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight Petrobras lost 2.3% in line with the downward movement of oil prices. On the other hand, Méliuz surged 14.1% after closing at a record low the day before. For the week, the Ibovespa went down by 1%.
China New Home Prices Flatten in June
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.
Shares in New Zealand fell 15 points or 0.13% to 11,998 in early trading at the start of the week, slightly retreating from a nearly 2-month peak hit in the prior session, amid losses from non-energy minerals, industrial services, and transport. A decline in US stock futures rattled sentiment after Wall Street closed mostly lower Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a 4-day win streak, as investors digested bank earnings. Traders also took a cautious stance ahead of a flurry of economic data from China later in the day, including Q2 GDP readings, with concerns growing that the post-pandemic bounce is rapidly losing momentum.
US Natgas Prices Fall to 1-Month Low
Colombia Industrial Output Falls Less than Expected
Manufacturing production in Columbia sank by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2023, following a 6.4% decline in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 4.9% contraction. The downturn added to recent evidence that the Colombian economy is succumbing to the aggressive interest rate hikes from its central bank. Output fell primarily for paper products (-15.1%), beverages (-11.2%), chemical products (-14.7%), and textiles (-22.1%).