KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brett Andress maintained a Sector Weight rating on Harley-Davidson.
The Thesis
By KeyBanc’s assessment, Harley-Davidson’s international growth continues to slow.
Countries accounting for 70 percent of the global market recorded a 19.2-percent decline in Harley registrations this January, Andress said in a Thursday note. Last year, registrations rose 19.1 percent over the same period.
“While one month does not make a trend, January declines in our monthly reporting countries came in worse than we anticipated, though compares do ease meaningfully in [February and March]," the analyst said.
The Asia-Pacific region saw broad-based drops for a second consecutive month, including a high-double-digit decline in India.
Latin America sales moderated — with particular weakness in Brazil — and Western Europe reported softness as the U.K. suffered pressure.
“Flowing monthly trends forward (and assuming sustained trends in quarterly-reporting countries) puts our index in the mid single-digit/high single-digit range for [the first quarter of 2019], implying HOG's reported international retail in the low single-digit/mid single-digit range," Andress said.
Harley-Davidson’s next quarterly report is slated for release April 23.