4xForecaster

Early Bearish Signs ... Is #HarleyDavidson Petering Out? | #NYSE

NYSE:HOG   HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC
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Friends,

Cruising around the NYSE charts, my predictive analysis and forecasting system pointed to a potential bear, seen in Harley Davidson's stck ($HOG - #NYSE).

First, a recent relief rally occurred, but failed to carve a new structure high. instead, it fell square into a price range I had defined as "EAGLE" (for Extremely AGgressive Level of Entry for a counter-trend opportunity). Since then, price rolled right at the level (today) where an early bearish market reversal signal is getting ready to print. I expect that a further slide in price might sound that bearish alarm.

For the time being, two potential targets have emerged as the signal remains pending, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 54.50 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability, corresponding to an occult geometry support level

and

2 - TG-2 = 48.82 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability, corresponding to a potential proprietary Great White Pattern

As indicated above, the system can produce directional signs of market reversal, but until a signal is generated, it remains just that: a sign.


OVERALL:

This trader's directional bias is bearish , whereas the predictive analysis and forecasting system is neutral to bearish , based on potential bearish signs defined above. More on this as the market unfolds.


Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting


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Disclaimer:
- Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis , classic technical analysis , basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below.
- Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
09 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

A quick tech-note here to remark that bulls have failed a recent rally. Instead, price remained subdued by the forecast resistance zone.

69.60 defines the recent structural high-mark which price needs to breach in order to convince traders that a bullish reversal might be underway. This is especially true since the support @ 65.70 has been redefined to a lower 65.38, suggesting a more probable bearish scenario remains in force at the present time.

Targets have not changed: A break below 60.65 would open the floor to abysmal targets, as defined in the chart.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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