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ASX:HRR Triple bottom or bust?

Long
ASX:HRR   HERON RESOURCES LIMITED
Yearly production estimate and against recent base metal prices (USD) 12/04/2018.
Zinc 70,000 dry Mt @ $3,238 per dry Mt = $226,6606,000
Copper 30,000 dry Mt @ $6,887 per dry Mt = $206,610,000
Lead 25,000 dry Mt @ $2,500 per dry Mt = $60,000,000

HRR is looking at an EDITDA of $493,270,000 once in production!
Note: does not include precious metals by-product which the company does not forecast.

Cons:
- Heron/Woodlawn is a junior miner with a large possibility of production delays.
- Recent share price dilution to achieve funding up to production Q1 2019.
- Zinc has a low price trend risk during tepid economic growth.
- Historically Zinc can be priced well below the cost of production for years at a time.
- Supply side story and not demand.

Pros:
- No debt.
- Funded up to production Q1 2019 with a possibility of earning surprise if in early production by late 2018.
- Proven high quality sulphide deposit resource base
- Existing transport infrastructure and power, strong community support
- Brand new state of the art processing plant and equipment with a capacity to produce an average 1.25 million tonnes of tailings and underground ore per year that means 150,000 tonnes of lead copper and zinc equivalent annually
- 9 Year mine life (9.24 million tons reserve starter case) with possible regional expansion. Some joint expansion already in place with other companies(see ALY options deal).
- Most of Chinas Zinc production has shut down
- Tight zinc market
- Zinc battery technology will boost demand
- Dwindling world supply (Conjecture - LME Zinc/ Copper showing up on its door recently due to higher prices)

Investors:
- Greenstone
- Orion
- Castle lake finance

Processing:
- Mill then a
- Sequential sulphide floatation bath

242,000,000 shares on issue
$180,000,000 market capitalisation