This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you.
I found that the Hang Seng Index trend can match with Wave Theory, therefore i try to analysis the trend with Wave theory.
After the uptrend started at the begin of 2021 and end at 10 February 2021, the trend go down trend at 11 FEB 2021 until 29 Jun 2021. We call this as (A) wave of down trend.This wave more like Retracement but Fail to create W base so start to go Down trend (B) Wave after 29 Jun 2021
Kindly notice that, each (A)(B) wave have (1)(2)(3) small wave inside, basically only three small wave in one big wave, may refer to chart.
(B) Wave start from 30 June to 29 Sept, and it failed to create W base at 3rd wave, therefore fo down trend again and Start (C) Wave.
Will (C) Wave happen in future? (Oct to Dec)
Start from 01 October 2021, the trend start a new uptrend, but mostly like a rebounce The trend has stand above 10 and 20 EMA successfully, but trade volume is not enoughto support the uptrend.
However, the trend now seems like try to go a new W base.
If the W base can be created successfully, we may consider a small bull market will start, but if the W base fail like (A) & (B) Wave before, then the downtrend THREE WAVE might happen again, the low point may meet at 21700. Therefore we have THREE prediction for the future -
A) If the trend wont create W base and keep go uptrend in Oct, then it might rise until 26650, and meet pressure or break through
B) if W base create success, then the Up trend go to 26650 and start a small bull trend
C) W base fail, new down trend start and the low point will meet before 21700
At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment .
Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
After HSI Futures OCT settlement, the challenge support line will be between 25000 to 24500, if the trend break through 50 MA, need to be careful
mingchiang
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@lsking0425, based on the chart it looks like scenario B is playing out. what do you think?
lsking0425
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@mingchiang, there is a support at 24600, as long as the trend does not break through 24600 and rebounce, then is fine.
lsking0425
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@mingchiang, but i can say that tomorrow will has a small rebounce, but since the trade volume is not enough to push up the trend, so the trend now will consider as rebounce
mingchiang
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@lsking0425, look like a dead cat bounce, but if volume picks up we can potentially look at a short term upwards trend.
lsking0425
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@mingchiang, this is because america reduce debt purchase plan will be announced today or tomorrow, need observation
aureliequin
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@lsking0425 is this week still possible for HSI to 24.600 or it already will rebounce to 26.000?
lsking0425
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@aureliequin, Probably will happen, need to wait until America Reduce debt purchase plan be announced today or tomorrow
aureliequin
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@lsking0425 i have sell on 25.000, can you give me some advice about my acc to cut loss the sell at 25.200 right now or wait the down moment to 24.900 again??