The Hang Seng absolutely melt down on Monday, most people explained the selloff as the disappointment in Xi and his royalists taking complete control of the CCP, or the market is disappointed because there is no lifting of COVID restrictions after the 20th party congress....IMO, both of these are or should be well expected, the people's daily actually published the importance of COVID zero for like 3 days in a row ahead of the 20th party congress....anyway
If we zoom out, we can see the HSI is at a historical upward trend line support, and below it at the moment (this is a monthly chart). Valuation does not make sense, because the Index is trading at 0.6 PB, and each time the index traded below 1 in history, it resulted in significant return over the next 2 years (and I believe the PB never went below 0.9). However, the index now has more tech companies in it and the price to book is inflated a bit?
However, given how oversold and undervalue the index is, this looks more like a final capitulation than a "start" of another round of bear market. If we just simplify things, if the index level climb back up above this 30-year trend line, there is a high chance that the bottom is in like previous bear markets circled in red (given no new black swan event happen to the world). Volume also picks up significantly today (not available on tradingview somehow), consistent with typical capitulation at market bottom where everyone loses hope and just give up and shut down their computers...
meanwhile, theres energy crisis, war, inflation and protests going on in Europe, but European equities are up as much as 2% today and US futures up 0.5-0.8% pre market, no one cares about China selling off...interesting divergence...
If we zoom out, we can see the HSI is at a historical upward trend line support, and below it at the moment (this is a monthly chart). Valuation does not make sense, because the Index is trading at 0.6 PB, and each time the index traded below 1 in history, it resulted in significant return over the next 2 years (and I believe the PB never went below 0.9). However, the index now has more tech companies in it and the price to book is inflated a bit?
However, given how oversold and undervalue the index is, this looks more like a final capitulation than a "start" of another round of bear market. If we just simplify things, if the index level climb back up above this 30-year trend line, there is a high chance that the bottom is in like previous bear markets circled in red (given no new black swan event happen to the world). Volume also picks up significantly today (not available on tradingview somehow), consistent with typical capitulation at market bottom where everyone loses hope and just give up and shut down their computers...
meanwhile, theres energy crisis, war, inflation and protests going on in Europe, but European equities are up as much as 2% today and US futures up 0.5-0.8% pre market, no one cares about China selling off...interesting divergence...