Hang Seng is moving sideways since August 15, may creating a triangle in wave „4“ position.
Triangles occur at a wave „4“, „B“ or an „X“ wave of a pattern and they give a hint of what will be next. A final drop (in this case) and a change of trend thereafter! They never occur in a wave „2“ position!
At the , which I am showing, the triangle is to see in it`s early stages.
If this pattern develops, there will be a final drop to new lows below the 24899 level. While the possible wave „2“ low at 24540 is just 5% away from current levels, there is not much room left. So a short and sharp decline is to expect if the triangle once is done. A decline below the level of 24540 will rescind this forecast and turn my stand from to neutral/bearish!
As I mentioned many times here at these pages, the Hong Kong protesters are steadfast and unyielding, not showing any signs of „exhaustion, while their protests run for many weeks. Also, they show no fear of the Chinese government. Social mood at low levels in Hong Kong and ongoing protests often occur at important market lows in Hong Kong.
I have inserted a link with an interview by Bloomberg.com with Mark Galasiewski, a famous and well known Elliottwave expert by Elliottwave.com. He explained while this current protest is a sign for the long term in Hong Kong from his perspective. Watch it! I learned many from him!
If a triangle is underway, a possible wave „c“ is underway and will close below the 26356 levels. Otherwise, the pattern is no longer valid and possible.
On the 90 minute chart, you will observe that price is moving in the same pattern as it did at the daily.
While many market participants are betting on lower prices still, the short-selling ratio has popped to high levels and is rising still. Means, many investors are heavily loaded with sell options or have sold their stocks in expectation for declining price. I have mentioned before at these pages, that this behavior often occurs with a negative social mood and near trend reversals.
At the diagram (taken from aastocks.com) there is to observe, that the Stock short-selling ratio closed at 66.913% after it has risen to 83.418% on August 28! That means investors have been more at a higher price still, which is a sign to my view. May not short term, but in the coming 1-2 weeks or so.
We will observe how price will move in the coming week and I will update the chart. Stay tuned!
Have a great weekend...
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Trading this analyze is at your own risk!