High Yield Corp Bonds HYG Daily - Gave us an early warning

I published this "late" call back in February as HYG was bottoming. The chart then was the gray triangles. At the time, we couldn't graph the DIVIDEND payments, so I painted them in blue "arcs" on the chart. The divs are on the first of every month and are roughly 45 cents each time +/-. Note that the ATR rose into "RISK" mode in mid-July as the price fell, implying that sellers were getting aggressive and prices were slipping. Typically, you will see selling in High Yield Credit first to indicate that it's time to take money off the table in equities. The current rise in "RISK" is to the same level as back in February, so it is at a key level here of 0.40 (the 10-day Average True Range).

I think a bold trade here is to buy it at 92.22 and exit and go short at 93. The stop on each trade here is 0.50 pts from entry. Target 91.50 on the short trade from 93.

Tim 9:47AM EST 8/1/2014