timwest
Long

2016 PANIC WAS SIMILAR TO 2009 IN U.S. JUNK

HYG/TLT  
HYG/TLT  
1327 8 22
As measured by the ratio between HYG             (Junk Bonds) and TLT             (US Government Bonds, 20 Year).

HYG             is now outperforming TLT             by 14% from the extreme level as that seen in late 2008.

Clearly the fears have outweighed the evidence for this disproportionate pricing of junk bonds.

Back in 2008 we had financial firms closing their doors, Lehman, AIG             , Bear Stearns, Banks were going under, the Gov't was taking over the banking system and spending $1Trillion to get the economy going again. Housing prices were plunging and home loans couldn't be made. Banks weren't making loans. Unemployment was surging to 10%+...

And yet, compare that to 2015... nothing could be further from those events.

Smooth sailing ahead!? Never. Fears relived are just as real as the first time.

Tim

3/11/2016 11:25AM EST




Comment: Upside potential 10% in the next 3 months - 6 months.

Risk: 4%-5%.
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I just want to ask you what you think about dow jones for next 3 months
with best regards
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timwest PRO mr.cable
Sideways is my forecast for the year 2016. I was bullish at the lows in January-February looking for a rebound to around this level and just see a see-saw market from here. Search my charts - especially my "FORECAST FOR 2016"
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Wxal timwest
Tim are commodities turning or is this an oversold bounce or bear market . Thanks.
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@Wxal, I wish I saw your question 8 months ago. Commodities in general are moving on their own merits and not as a group.
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it seems more like bars in two thousand and seven..if it is the case, we have 6-13 months to wait for go long on gold like crazies
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But how do you see this translate to the markets given that the price action is right after the the market collapse but now we are in the opposite side of the stick at all time highs?
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@2use, Panic at all time highs is what we still have here. Tons of cash. Tons of shorts. Yet high margin balances. Bearish sentiment the highest in decades (10-month average)... An election year "trash-talking" all year long hurt sentiment. Either way, look for values in sectors and stocks, not in the "market".
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2use timwest
@timwest, Value investing in sectors, this sounds like pre-crash investment approach. "Tons of cash. Tons of shorts. " it feels so, but then the market is being brought to all time highs - by who? I can't see an average investor do this, and for the ton of shorts, it must be painful - i wonder if this will indeed trigger an euphoria or "chasing" seeing that the market is going up. Large scale bull trap?
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