AMEX:IAU   ISHARES GOLD TRUST
My Tug-of-War indicator reached a bottom on 4/29 (see the mark) which indicates that there is pressure from both buyers and sellers and the price will likely move significantly (in either direction) over the next several days (you can check that out for yourself on the chart and find other lows of the indicator and see how they are usually followed by significant price movement). Since then it seems the direction is down so I'll go for a short.

Note the chart uses Heikin Ashi bars (which show the price a little different than standard candles).

DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.
Trade active: short now at $16.18 5/1/2020 10:23 AM CST
Comment: AUY has a similar pattern, I opened AUY short in my paper money account at 4.81 (stop loss at 5.03). I set SL for IAU at 16.38. 5/1/2020 1:45 PM CST.
Comment: GLD has a similar pattern as well (of course, they are all gold) but the pattern is less evident for GDX.
Trade closed: stop reached: Price hit my stop loss.It may still fall but it could take a bit longer for that to happen.
Comment: After further analysis, I conclude that gold may go up nevertheless. In screenshot below, blue/green line crosses over the red line (signifying short term uptrend) and the red line bounces off the 0 line and goes up during the last bar (being above 0 signifies long term uptrend).
Comment: Based on my analysis today, I still think a major move will be coming but I'm not sure about the direction yet. It may be down as I stated initially.
Want to know more, free signals, what I'm trading and when I'm trading it? Last week's predictions 92% accurate and 13.6 profit factor--verifiable! Join free https://discord.gg/wDTkRnS (also interesting discussions) or https://t.me/TradersForecast.

Comments

what indicator did you use in this chart? Is that a Moving average? (the purple line in the chart?)
Reply
TradersForecast Princessgirl
@Princessgirl, it's actually an EMA of the blue line. It's a variation of the other indicators below which is aimed to catch the trend. The values of the lines don't match the price (if you look in the left right corner their values are over 100, much higher than the price) but I overlayed them over the price (but don't correspond exactly to the price, the chart automatically tries to fit highs and lows of both the indicators and the price). There is an option for an indicator (which is set to show in the price pane) to set it to "scale non" or "scale Z" (which does what I just described). It seems to me it works better than a moving average. If I get a pro account I may share some layouts where you could see them for whatever symbol and time frame you want. Right now I can't create more layouts and I have one shared for a friend who trades 1 minute charts on VZ. If you want I'll share it with you. You can change the symbol bot not the time frame, unfortunately (so I'll need to share a layout for each frame but given that I'm not pro I can't create more layouts).
Reply
Princessgirl TradersForecast
@TradersForecast, I understand.

Yah... sure I would love if you could share them with me. ;-)
If you look at my charts, you will see that I think gold will go down as well. My time frame is wrong for some reason on the charts I posted. The charts I am working on right now are correct, but I don't have time to fix them right now.
Reply
TradersForecast Princessgirl
@Princessgirl, yes, I agree with the gold falling some time soon. But the market is often unexpected and hard to predict. At times it alludes us or, at least the timing. I think the head and shoulders pattern is more reliable when it's on top of a longer arm (that is, a longer period of increase in relation to which the head and shoulder formation is relatively small). Good luck with your trades!
Reply
Princessgirl TradersForecast
@TradersForecast, and why did you circle that area on the lower right side?
Reply
TradersForecast Princessgirl
@Princessgirl, if, on the chart above, you move the cursor over other bars (or days) where the green indicator in the lower pane reaches a low value (a "valley") you will see that significant price moves usually follow. Since I published the idea the indicator haven't really much recovered from a low value so I expect that the move still needs to happen.

Here's my shared layout. Again, this is for a friend how trades VZ on 1 minute chart (there is too much noise on that time frame if you ask me). You can change the symbol but unfortunately you can't change the time frame (which is 1 minute). I may share layouts with other time frames (like daily, etc.) if I go pro and I can create more layouts. Here's the link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/65Lx2y1t/ If you can't figure how to change the symbol let me know.
Reply
TradersForecast Princessgirl
@Princessgirl, I had a similar low for treasury bond (TLT, another idea I posted at about the same time) and that one happened right away and it has come along pretty well. I looked up "TLT/GLD" or "TLT/IAU" (thus comparing TLT with gold) in tradingview.com and it seemed to me that TLT was a better choice though (and I mentioned that in some comment).
Reply
Princessgirl TradersForecast
@TradersForecast, Thank you for all this. Sorry I took so long to get back to you. I kinda took the weekend off from my computer/tradingview. LOL! I like your thinking on all of this. And I will definitely look at your chart.

BTW, have you ever looked at the moon phases in relation to the market moves. Strange as it sounds (and I think it sounds strange) , there is an indicator on TV with the phases of the moon. Good luck with your trades. :-)
Reply
TradersForecast Princessgirl
@Princessgirl, hi don't worry, weekends are to be enjoyed! :) No, I have never thought of that idea. But there may be a relation, who knows unless one researches that. Of course, the market is influenced by a lot of factors. Some influence it more, some less. The key is to find the factors with strong correlation to the market (that may be technical analysis, fundamentals or maybe the outcome of some novel research!). Yes, it is strange that there is such an indicator but I've learned that crazy ideas may sometimes prove to be valuable. In case of trading there is so much breadth of indicators that it becomes time consuming to know even a fraction of them. I think depth is better than breadth in this case. Try to understand some indicators really well. I have a friend who trades for a living and only trades one symbol, VZ and mostly on 1 minute, sometimes 5 minute charts. After a lot of time he has some depth of understanding how VZ moves intraday on small time frames. I'm not saying that everybody should do that but it's just an example of "depth."

BTW, regarding gold, my indicators mostly reversed so it may still fall. I want to wait more time before opening a position though.
Reply
Princessgirl TradersForecast
@TradersForecast, Thanks for that perspective. :-)
Reply
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