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GTStockmaster
Mar 21, 2019 1:02 AM

Initial Claims vs. SPX - Close to a Cross 

1/ICSAFRED

Description

Cross = very negative, and typically occurs during a fed rate cutting cycle. These often top-tick markets, and this has been a very reliable indicator across all the bull and bear markets for quite some time.

Note - I use ICSA because despite it being noisy, it's actually a cleaner data series when you just smooth it with a moving average (I use EMA). It's not subject to as much potential bias or data issues as some of the other unemployment metrics are.
Comments
ReallyMe
Agreed. I am counting to three. There will not be a "four"
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