Looking at my favorite personal recession indicator (two initial claims moving averages compared to the S&P 500) we can see that there still has not been a crossover to confirm the beginning of the next recession. With that said, the moving averages are converging, but nothing can be concluded until we see a confirmed crossover of the averages. Historically, this indicator has been very accurate, both in calling the tops before massive bear markets, and the bottoms before bull markets. A crossover will confirm that the next recession has begun.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Hey Poop...great chart and share. Been attempting to recreate this chart in TV and been unsuccessful. Can I trouble you to quickly explain how to overlay ES1! with FRED:ICSA? Thanks Poop! P.S. Pay no attention to the idiots with negative comments. They need to move on to different analysts if they choose to be *ssholes. Cheers mate...
AlexandruCiocoiu
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What MA are these? Thanks
joshbuilds
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@AlexandruCiocoiu, clicking the plus sign beside the part that says "initial claims" on the chart will expand to show what indicators are used. in this case its the 100MA and 25MA
AlexandruCiocoiu
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@joshbuilds, thanks - figured it out myself as well in the meantime :) it's interesting to see how this will play out - Federal Reserve cut down the rate twice lately, ECB's easing pachage, the trade wars effect, brexit, overall global growth slowing down - a major correction is bound to happen imo.
joshbuilds
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@AlexandruCiocoiu, I'm definitely expecting a major correction too for the same reasons you mentioned. I'm thinking it will happen next fall/winter though. I doubt trump will let recession hit right before an election. Also recessions tend to happen when everyone is super bullish, but i don't know anyone who is bullish atm. That's just my hunch though, we'll just have to see how it plays out.
@AlexandruCiocoiu, Sorry, I should have explained that. The moving averages are generated from the initial claims chart. They are the 25 (orange) and 100 (purple) week moving averages. The pink line is the S&P 500.
Find3
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Just curious how is this your "Personal Recession Indicator"? This is simply an "Initial Jobs Report Index" used every day on Wall St. by hundreds of analysts. Thank you and thank you for your posts.