Captain_Walker

Mind the Indian Stock Market!

OANDA:IN50USD   India 50
The Indian Market has seen some an insane frenzy of bullishness in recent weeks. Favourable PMI numbers and overjoy about expanding economies have led the gamblers to go north like nobody's business in the last few days.

Errh.. they forgot about supply chain bottlenecks. ๐Ÿ™„

The interesting thing about this position is what it 'makes'' you think - or is that 'feel'? I don't know what's going to happen. Let me say that again, I don't know what's going to happen.

The reality is that the Indian economy is in dire straits at the grass roots. The further excitement travels from reality, the greater is the eventual pain.

For new traders, have you noticed that when you get stopped out price tends to reverse just a few points after? Then you shout expletives when price follows your original direction and you get left behind. It's soooo infuriating! ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ‘ฟ Why? Price has a higher probability of reversal at peaks and troughs on any time frame. The trouble is setting your stop loss with enough elasticity to catch it, whilst avoiding FOMO.

This is not advice - it is experience shared. (Mind my brutal disclaimer below).

Price usually reverses at a point much greater than we anticipate, even after all the technical analysis . That's been happening a whole lot, especially in the pandemic period.

So - positions like this one on the daily Indian charts are very difficult to short. Keep in mind that shorting is always more difficult in Stock indices than going long.

The great thing about short-selling indices (around this time) is that if they drop, they have a long way to go. So no rush. Small position sizes with very wide affordable stop losses are one answer to the ridiculous volatility . When a deep trend develops on the 15 to 30 min time frame that's the one to watch. I don't fight a daily time frame!

Both the Indian and German markets have recently decided to track the USTECH100. That's pretty dangerous gambling. How? When the crash (>50% correction) starts we know it's going to start with TECH. P/E ratios are wild in the tech sector, and totally unrealistic. But of course it depends on which guru you believe. Some recall what happened in the Dotcom era. Some have forgotten.

Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus https://youtu.be/NjTdvALChwk ]

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