Another interesting point to make on this chart is that the 1-year moving average, which is 253 days provided resistance on the last decline, which is a decent stop loss level for any short positions established starting today.
The last sell signal I published at the end of July to sell short triggered at the 17655 level and has been profitable at times after an initial move near the 17830 stop. The low has been 17279, which is a 380 point max profit, or barely more than 2% in the DJIA .
Stay tuned to see what happens. Lower the stop to breakeven if you haven't already.
8/11/2015 4:28PM EST
Now this downtrend has been very different. Buying deeply oversold and selling/selling short at/near the KEY LEVEL has been working great. So, it could be that "between earnings seasons" you just buy/sell under/over and "IN SEASON" you trade the trend. Hard to tell, but that's the pattern so far.