Updated chart of the DJIA that shows how the market rallied back to the 17769 resistance level in the last rally into month-end July before turning back down. Earnings for CSCO are due tomorrow, then WMT and HD are next week.
Another interesting point to make on this chart is that the 1-year moving average, which is 253 days provided resistance on the last decline, which is a decent stop loss level for any short positions established starting today.
The last sell signal I published at the end of July to sell short triggered at the 17655 level and has been profitable at times after an initial move near the 17830 stop. The low has been 17279, which is a 380 point max profit, or barely more than 2% in the DJIA.
Stay tuned to see what happens. Lower the stop to breakeven if you haven't already.
8/11/2015 4:28PM EST
Comments
timwest
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Here is a shorter link in case the Google share link to see the google docs spreadsheet I have put together for this calculation. goo.gl/Cm62VA
Thanx Tim! Have you ever tried to see what the result would be if one tested the KEL with automated trading?
timwest
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I'm monitoring it and doing research. So far the research is inconclusive. Initially, it seemed to be "buy the market if below the KEY LEVEL" and then "sell short the market if above the KEY LEVEL" and that worked great for a few months.
Now this downtrend has been very different. Buying deeply oversold and selling/selling short at/near the KEY LEVEL has been working great. So, it could be that "between earnings seasons" you just buy/sell under/over and "IN SEASON" you trade the trend. Hard to tell, but that's the pattern so far.
timwest
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Have you been watching all of my posts on this indicator?
timwest
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17820 is the new calculation using the new DJIA multiplier
pipercolt
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Tim, for sure I can't make heads or tails about where this market is going from one minute to the next let alone next week, so I'm in dire need of some help. And I'm not going to get any richer heading for retirement.