Juggernaut to ATH PT : $750-850

May 20

- Absolute juggernaut of a company. Top tier management and solid execution lately deserves premium valuation.

- INTU is moving up market i.e targeting on mid markets as compared to just focussing on SMBs ( Small & Medium Sized Businesses )

- Company has a MOAT all those FUD regarding simplification of tax laws/rules was overblown.

- Company should do well irrespective of the MACRO. Even, if US enters recession, People gotta file taxes and do accounting. Some segments will show weakness in case of recession like Mailchimp and Credit Karma. But TurboTax and Quickbooks are all weather products.

- Final take: INTU should break to all time highs if the upcoming quarter impresses.
- PT: 750-850

May 20

Note

Fundamentally,

YEAR | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 19.37 | 22.17 | 25.22 | 28.64
EPS % | 15.21% | 14.42% | 13.75% | 13.56%

For company growing EPS mid teens deserves a forward multiple of 20/25 as the base case.

However, if a company has a moat then it should command at least forward p/e of 30.

Base Case Stock Price (Forward p/e = 30) :
YEAR. | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 19.37 | 22.17 | 25.22 | 28.64
Stock price | $581 | $665 | $756 | $859

Conservative Base Case Stock Price (Forward p/e = 25) :
YEAR. | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 19.37 | 22.17 | 25.22 | 28.64
Stock price | $484 | $554 | $630 | $716

May 20

Note

However, INTU has a history of meeting or beating expectations and raising EPS. Therefore, I lean on bull case for INTU and will give it a premium by forward p/e of 35

Conservative Bull Case Stock Price (Forward p/e = 35) :
YEAR. | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 19.37 | 22.17 | 25.22 | 28.64
Stock price | $677| $775 | $882 | $1002

May 20

Note

- We are likely entering the start of impulsive phase as seen on the monthly chart for $INTU.
- INTU made all time highs in 2021 then it had a correction, then consolidation which allowed it to grow into its earnings.
- Now, INTU is ready for the impulsive move higher!
- What a beautiful monthly chart, multi-bagger stock with solid compounder over years.

May 22

Note

- Solid quarter, INTU delivered. Stock is up ~ 7% after hours as an initial reaction and trading at ~$713

May 27

Note

- Intuit closed above $750 today! Let's go get that $800

May 28

Note

INTU is focussing on moving to mid markets that's great. Historically, they have focussed on Small Businesses. Moving up the food chain and targeting mid market should continue to fuel their growth.