I debated about this one for a bit, but I wanted to cautiously look into
IOTABTC
. Welcome to my FUNanalysis on IOTA.
This has been rather off on its own sidelining up and down in a relatively low slope downward channel. The first thing I want to do is look at the overall movement and to this, I am using the 1 day ticker to help me see the bigger trend at play.
After its biggest climb that pushed this all the way past 45000 satoshi mark early December 2017, it started to lose its momentum and normalized itself into a downward trend like with the rest of the market. The very first interesting thing I noticed that was different from many other altcoins out there is that its pattern appear to be somewhat decoupled from BTC. I'll leave the possible reasons to your imagination.
The MACD movement here is also very interesting. I see many attempts at reversals around the .382 line (circled in green) and they are all getting swatted down as if someone is trying to say, it is not yet your time.
Fitting the recent move since the start of the most recent BTC crash in between the purple trendlines, we can see a descending wedge has formed. It first had its major test against the upper trendline supported by riding above the 50EMA line and the orange trendline. The critical impasse came at January 16, 2018 ticker, when it failed to break through the upper trendline and even broke under the orange trendline.
IOTA continued its path downtrend squeezed inside the purple wedge, but again very interestingly, tested or stayed close to the upper trendline on its way down. In addition, despite its relatively sidelining movement, MACD has not had a noticeable flip either since the cryptochaos winter season of 2017-2018 and consistently showed a downward pressure being applied. Couple this sell pressure on top of the doji candles around end of January 2018, I would guess some new major positions have been opened here.
Looking at the recent movement, we had another rest of the upper trendline around February 16, 2018 candle, exactly 1 month after since our last major one. Well, since it failed to break through it again this time, IOTA has had another slip of roughly 5000 satoshis across less than a week's time - I would even guess the new positions that opened around the doji candle mark had their stop loss triggered further driving IOTA down. This time it tested the bottom of the trendline which also happens to be at the .618 line and was followed by a healthy bounce back up, .
If I had to make a prediction here, I would look at how IOTA has behaved on a no-trade period. Based on its sidelining behaviour during a period of very flat volume across end of January ~ mid February (circled in green) in addition to the flat MACD level (yellow circle over MACD), I would guess that there are some strong hands at play that are not selling IOTA based on emotion and other typical FUD.
If IOTA can hold its position at the .618 line and sidelines, the break through above the upper trendline of the wedge would have to occur, at which point a breakout could be expected.
Bottom line: I do see much more signs of reversal than I did a week ago. We'll have to pay close attention to IOTA's behaviour over the next 1~1.5 week along the golden ratio line and the wedge borders.
Thanks for reading!
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BTC: 16nuFfjQ2Rqi5fr5j4m3sVBHxTSZy5tdxJ
ETH: 0xda25bdd815c88e1734b914fb61ae71c52bd4a169
Comment:
Approaching small movement apex
Comment:
1st target reached. Buying volume needs to build to continue up to 2nd target.