Updated Analysis of the IOTA/USDT Weekly Chart Using Elliott Wave Principle
Overview & Market Structure:
The weekly chart shows a prolonged bear market extending from the 2021 peak near $2.75. Since then, price has respected a series of declining trend channels and has continued to print lower highs and lower lows.
Key observations:
• The advance into the $0.40-$0.50 area now appears to have been a corrective Wave (4).
• Price subsequently completed a 5th wave structure into the current low.
• The market is now testing a historically important support region.
• RSI remains near long-term oversold territory, similar to previous major cycle bottoms.
• Selling momentum has weakened considerably compared to earlier stages of the bear market.
Current Elliott Wave Interpretation:
The preferred count suggests that the entire C wave decline from the 2021 high may now be completing a large five-wave bearish sequence. If this count is correct, the market may be forming a major cycle low rather than merely another temporary bounce. However, confirmation requires a decisive break above the most recent sequence of lower highs.
Bullish Scenario:
Evidence supporting a potential long-term reversal:
• Completed five-wave decline.
• Extreme pessimism and depressed valuation.
• RSI stabilising after prolonged oversold conditions.
• Price trading near historical support and channel support simultaneously.
• Potential bullish divergence developing between price and momentum.
For a genuine bull market to begin, IOTA must reclaim $0.50. Above $0.80, the probability increases significantly that a larger motive wave is in progress.
Potential Upside Targets
Should a new bull cycle emerge, the major resistance levels become:
1. $0.10-$0.15
* Initial recovery zone.
2. $0.25-$0.40
* Prior consolidation and structural resistance.
3. $0.60-$0.85
* Major Fibonacci retracement cluster visible on the chart.
4. $2.68-$2.75
* Previous cycle high extension target and key Fibonacci projection.
5. $5.80-$6.70
* Long-term extension zone corresponding to the upper Fibonacci targets shown on the chart.
Conclusion:
IOTA appears to be in the late stages of a multi-year bear market, potentially completing a large Elliott Wave capitulation pattern. The technical picture is becoming increasingly attractive from a contrarian perspective, but confirmation of a new bull cycle has not yet occurred.
The most likely interpretation today is:
* Bear market: likely very mature.
* Major bottom: possible and increasingly probable.
* First major confirmation level: approximately $0.10-$0.15.
* Long-term upside potential remains substantial if a cycle low is indeed forming.
Overview & Market Structure:
The weekly chart shows a prolonged bear market extending from the 2021 peak near $2.75. Since then, price has respected a series of declining trend channels and has continued to print lower highs and lower lows.
Key observations:
• The advance into the $0.40-$0.50 area now appears to have been a corrective Wave (4).
• Price subsequently completed a 5th wave structure into the current low.
• The market is now testing a historically important support region.
• RSI remains near long-term oversold territory, similar to previous major cycle bottoms.
• Selling momentum has weakened considerably compared to earlier stages of the bear market.
Current Elliott Wave Interpretation:
The preferred count suggests that the entire C wave decline from the 2021 high may now be completing a large five-wave bearish sequence. If this count is correct, the market may be forming a major cycle low rather than merely another temporary bounce. However, confirmation requires a decisive break above the most recent sequence of lower highs.
Bullish Scenario:
Evidence supporting a potential long-term reversal:
• Completed five-wave decline.
• Extreme pessimism and depressed valuation.
• RSI stabilising after prolonged oversold conditions.
• Price trading near historical support and channel support simultaneously.
• Potential bullish divergence developing between price and momentum.
For a genuine bull market to begin, IOTA must reclaim $0.50. Above $0.80, the probability increases significantly that a larger motive wave is in progress.
Potential Upside Targets
Should a new bull cycle emerge, the major resistance levels become:
1. $0.10-$0.15
* Initial recovery zone.
2. $0.25-$0.40
* Prior consolidation and structural resistance.
3. $0.60-$0.85
* Major Fibonacci retracement cluster visible on the chart.
4. $2.68-$2.75
* Previous cycle high extension target and key Fibonacci projection.
5. $5.80-$6.70
* Long-term extension zone corresponding to the upper Fibonacci targets shown on the chart.
Conclusion:
IOTA appears to be in the late stages of a multi-year bear market, potentially completing a large Elliott Wave capitulation pattern. The technical picture is becoming increasingly attractive from a contrarian perspective, but confirmation of a new bull cycle has not yet occurred.
The most likely interpretation today is:
* Bear market: likely very mature.
* Major bottom: possible and increasingly probable.
* First major confirmation level: approximately $0.10-$0.15.
* Long-term upside potential remains substantial if a cycle low is indeed forming.
In technical analysis, several methods focus on higher timeframes to provide a broader, more reliable context for trading or investment decisions. Elliott Wave Principle generally considers historical higher timeframes as mandatory.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
In technical analysis, several methods focus on higher timeframes to provide a broader, more reliable context for trading or investment decisions. Elliott Wave Principle generally considers historical higher timeframes as mandatory.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.