Luettis
Short

IOTA endangered

BITFINEX:IOTUSD   IOTA / U.S. Dollar
In one of my previous analysis I described the scenario that IOTA could fall onto a price level at about 0.35$. Most commentators argued, that this would be riddish and prices should be at 5$ or so.
It´s not that I do not trust the foundation or the idea behind IOTA. I do only some technical analysis here.

I´ve thought that most of the risks have been extinguished and the very low level of 0.35$ would be out of range.

But in my actual analysis, the older analysis gets the second chance.
Since may the price of IOTA has been fallen within a negative trend channel. Every attempt to break the upper limit has been stopped and IOTA continued lower.

Last time, from dec 17 to april 18, IOTA lost 84% of its value. If it were the same this time it would lead the price to levels around 0,42$; within the yellow rectangle! After 107 days it would have reached this level; this would be september 2018.

To give positive signs IOTA has to stay above the next support on 0,91$ and leave the channel to the side at least.

RSI and MACD both are in negative terrain. Volume is low.

Sorry - no good news. We´ll see if IOTA has got enough strength to break the existing negative trend in the next days or weeks!

This is no trading advice!




Comment:
Comment: As it seems that sentiment is turning to be better a second option has been opened for IOTA: instead of having a ABCDE - corrective wave we could end at C and then enter in the motive 12345 wave.
This is what I expect for Bitcoin and Ethereum and if they climb from their actual niveaus other coins and tokens will follow as well.
Still there is enough risk that IOTA will test lower lows and it hasn´t left the negative trend channel yet.
RSI has already turned and broke the downtrend, MACD has been triggered = positive.
To confirm the new trend IOTA has to leave the trend channel.
Otherwise the old trend stays alive.
Comment:
Comment: We´ve left the trend channel - at least for this moment. Now IOTA has to stay outside to confirm the new trend.
We might have some consolidation in the next days. This does not meen that IOTA has to dump back again - but one has to be patient.
Comment:
Comment: The little hope of a imminent and positive trend has been crushed. We´re back in the negative channel.
Still there is the option that IOTA would go sidewards and leave the channel a second time. The swing trend line at 0.91$ is a support and IOTA shall not fall beyond this.
Comment:
Comment: Trend channel adjusted - now the IOTA is fully within the channel and we didn´t have an outbreak!
But also we now have a symmetrical triangle with IOTA in the peak of it.
We´ve got two possible scenarios:
a) break-out to the top and then aiming the fib retracement 23.6% at 1.69$
b) break-out to the bottom and then testing a new low at 0.75$ or below
The indicators RSI and MACD don´t give much help - they´re both neutral.
Perhaps the direction of BTC will give the final signal whether to go up or down.
Comment:
Comment: IOTA has made a sideways correction and reached the upper limit of the descending trend channel, which is also the peak of symmetrical triangle. Will it go up and leave the channel - which would give very bullish signs and end the long negative trend.
Or will it break down and continue within the negative trend channel to reach the predicted zone "E" - (end of corrective wave).
Actually IOTA seems to be weak (touching lower line of wedge, RSI about crossing trend line to the bottom, MACD neutral and Volume rare).

Comments

Perfect illustration of the long term 1W. Here is our outlook on the medium term:

+1 Reply
Imo not lower than .65usd for a short moment, fasten your seat belt :)
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Comment removed.
ketile Lerixm
@Lerixm, Thank you for this enlightening and intelligent comment. You are such a friendly and helpful human being.
+1 Reply
Luettis Lerixm
@Lerixm, thanks for your kind words. Instead of insulting me you could enlighten me (us) with your perfect ideas. :-)
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