This_Guhy

IQ Apparently in Wycoffian Terminal Shake Out (compare Silver)

Long
NASDAQ:IQ   iQIYI, Inc
Introduction
Bitcoin's recent markdown has put Wycoff and Distribution on a lot of new traders radar as well as investors who have not had to deal with this kind of pattern recognition. There were a lot of people that thought that it looked too picture perfect so disregarded it, Guess what? They were taken the most by surprise and I know what it is like to be there because I was there 3-4 years ago when I had problems believing in TA because so much of it so so bad.

That leads to good news on IQ as IQ appears to be in Terminal Shake out and it is looking picture perfect. I have marked out the lower end of the action and have left the top alone because I think the indicators have done a good job showing that resistance. The volume on the final stage of the shake out is lower than what took us edge to edge on the bollinger band and value VPVR value area and this low volume helps us see that sellers are approximately exhausted. Another way to confirm the fact that the selling was relatively low volume is the Value Area did not move down. Much like a slow but persistent sell off can slowly bend a bollinger band lower and lower it can also drag the value area down.

I have been watching IQ for a couple of years now and have a couple of posts. My last post was bullish and I was going to update it when I bought some calls and I never pulled the trigger. This time is a bit difference. I have the stock and I have some OTM calls already on the books. It might go lower somehow but my entry this week is pretty solid for a long term hold and I hope to trade the options like a degenerate.

Indicators
I have put the monthly bollinger band on the weekly chart to show that price actin has gone below the monthly bollinger band . That is a very solid entry point if you generally have any faith in the long term outcome of an asset. Price has also gone below the Volume Profile Value area which contains +/-1 standard deviation of volume by price. When price goes out of the Value Area to the downside when it recovers you often see price actin go coast to coast and end up at the top of the value area. If price action is as bullish as I expect price can hop out of the limits of the BB and VPVR Value area as you can see in silver . From there price would enter into a multi-month re-accumulation.

The On Balance Volume with EMAs also has a bollinger band that I often don't show in my posts because if it isn't needed it just adds visual distractions. But the circles have shown times were a green week after a massive sell off has kinked the OBV at the bollinger band and price action has recovered . If you look at the second blue circle you can see how above the Volume Profile Visible Range moved down. That means the sell off hit a tipping point and was significant to move the whole visible range down roughly $5. That VPVR has not moved down in such a serious way with this dump.

Silver
Below is silver with the bollinger band and VPVR during the "Covid crash" and we can clearly see that buying with price action below both was a fantastic entry for a trade or investment. You should have the tools from the main chart to see all the key points of Accumulation. And I roughly expect something similar to happen with IQ . A rather quick move to or above the Point of Control and then a massive spike in price. I have not used the On Balance Volume because silver futures are a different beast with a different history.

Fundamentals and Conclusion
I think IQ has a very strong chance of behaving like silver did after its dump, so I bought some. Silver sold off for no good reason, as it didn't lose its industrial or intrinsic value and it is not like you can spread a virus by contaminating a silver mine and IQ sold off because some over-leveraged hedge fund degenerate couldn't answer his margin call, his stuff got liquidated and the momentum traders took this way too low. There was earnings a couple of days ago and it seems that the company can turn a profit within like, 5 years. Look at Facebook and Netflix below and how long it took these companies to have their stock clear the high of their first month of public trading. There is going to be a shake out off the weak hands. My only concern is a rout in tech stocks could take this lower but so far it is doing well.

Comment: The three Day candle opened earlier today and so far things are looking fantastic. I Very high probability that price gets to the first area of resistance in short order.
Comment: So far my IQ play is treating me very well. I have been playing with the Bollinger Band and Keltner Channel as a way of charting how far price action can reasonable and wickly move and so I have combined them tother with the MACD with the Asprey settings which has the MACD more closely centered around zero. One reason I like that is I can observe when the MACD histogram is shrinking rather quickly and you see white space in tbween the histogram and the MACD. Three out of four times we have gone to the far side of the bollinger band and one out of four times we have gone at least to the Keltner baseline.


I continue to think that the price action will pop out of the channel and band and IQ will enter a lengthy re-accumulation phase.

Comments

I thought most shake outs were were with ‘springs in wycoff distribution, or a huge ‘nail’ that stabs down to blow out levered traders, like back in Aprilsh of 2019 where that spike down tapped the golden cross. I’ve never seen a downward channel like that called a shakeout
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This_Guhy FerroIgnique
@FerroIgnique, It is 15 precent lower than the previous ATL and it looks like people bought that pretty hard. A lot of stops probably got triggered.
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