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pinc0de
Nov 29, 2019 11:59 PM

ITV - (possibly?) broken out of 4 year old downtrend Long

ITV ORD GBP0.10LSE

Description

The stock has been in the downtrend for the last 4 years.

Since mid August 2019, the price has been moving up and so far has gained ~50%. It has broken out of the downtrend mid October 2019, retested the area multiple times and has continued rallying upwards (there is no decline in volume either). The moving averages are still facing downward on Weekly, but have now turned up on a Daily.

Buy off a pullback and confirmation from support zone / bottom uptrend channel line and use a tight (is that the right choice here?) SL.

Watch price action at ~£1.51 and ~£1.57 and consider taking some profits.

The above is purely from looking at the chart with no idea about fundamentals. Should possibly have a look.. ;)
Comments
OldManFit
Hi, nice idea.

ITV shares have been on a sell for the last few years, I had it in my ISA (UK Tax wrapper) up until March 2019, I was crapping my pants over the upsurge of online providers and noticing that I don't watch broadcast TV anymore.

I do feel I overlooked that ITV produces as well as broadcasts, so it get royalties and licencing income worldwide, as well as terrestrial broadcasting in the UK; in the latest trading update the ITV informed the market that advertising revenue came in at the top end of the range in the third quarter, surpassing pessimistic City expectations, which were predicting a year-on-year decline (basically the reason I sold).
People must still be watching TV for those revenues.
Further to this, Online revenues expanded by around 23% in the third quarter.
ITV also produce a lot of programmes for the BBC and others ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shows_produced_by_ITV_Studios ) - The studios division accounts for 43% of group revenue and is increasing year on year (and it is profitable).

The surprise results helped underpin the dividend yield of 5.9%, rising to 6% next year 2020 (industry average is 3%). The dividend cover is 1.6 times by earnings per share, which leaves a safety for buyers.

Price wise the PE is running at around 10.5 on forward earnings which puts just under the 16 times industry sector average in the LSE, so there is still space for a degree of price rise on these earnings.
However, it could go further as the business orientates itself to increased online revenues.

I sort of regret overlooking the long-term potential of this share on hindsight (though in July is was patting myself on the back when it dropped to 110p).
Will it go back to 280p seen in 2015? Broker target prices are 139p at the moment (based on old data though). Personally I think probably 200-220p is achievable in the long-term.

I might dip in for a spread bet on this share, but I wont be holding it long-term in my ISA though.
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