The future for the Russell 2000 as derived from the past

1946 10 38
Here's how the Russell 2000 today is copying a time period from the S&P500-0.21% in the past.

The time frames on these charts are very long term. They are both MONTHLY charts and are not for day-trading or short term market timing.

These similar structures and patterns probably tell us a great story.

Time will tell if we repeat the pattern.

Look for my many other long term forecasts based on Fed Chairman patterns, long-wave-demographic cycles (thanks Harry Dent), and other techniques.

Tight ranges ahead!


12:56AM EST 4/25/2016
Comment: Progressing as forecasted
Comment: Still "on track"
Comment: It's almost identical to the early 1990's model. We reached a new high, then grinded sideways in a tight range. People were pretty bearish back then too, as they are now. I remember just how negative people were then as I sat on an institutional block trading desk for S.G. Warburg in New York City (Now called UBS) and dealing with the biggest hedge funds in the world at the time. It's a good idea to go back and re-read the WSJ and NYTimes from back then to dig into the sentiment and confirm this line of thought. When we come out of a period of volatility, it takes people a LONG time to adjust to it. It is almost like being shell-shocked. The market can remain calm a lot longer than people are used to or expecting and we just end up having tight range chop.
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Is 150 price a high chance in the next 6 months then?
Great work, thanks for consistently posting your finds.
If your long-term forecast (based on monthly charts) turns out to be correct, that actually is useful information for short-term traders. Tight ranges (like the kind we are in now) make for good day trading, and frankly, not much else. (I'm talking about trading; not multi-year, long-term investing.)
timwest MichaelRudelich
@MichaelRudelich, So far - so good.
with crummy GDP numbers. weak earnings. and another rate hike looming, not to mention an election I look for sideways action or more selling going into the fall. Volatility trading by the algos will continue but new money coming into the market is a question for me and small caps will be first to get a haircut
+1 Reply
timwest paulyberndt
Thanks Pauly - you've got it exactly.
Yeah I Like your comments too. With all the craziness crap I see around here just a few, but very few sometimes make sense.
+1 Reply
timwest Rickvespa
Thanks Rick - Have you seen my other market predictions? I do try to take my time and make logical charts. I don't review many other charts here as it does take time to sift through and I don't get much value from doing that. I post comments during the day at Key Hidden Levels "chat room". Thanks again for the reply.
I like your long term view. My work points to a decline to $95 in IWM before rising to new highs. Using history as a guide, the weakest period in 1990-1991 for the S&P 500 was mid August to mid October, when to S&P 500 fell from 368 to 294. The $RUT was not around then, so I would think the major trends would act in a similar percentage. Thank you for your contributions I enjoy your work. Don.
+1 Reply
timwest 649bruno
Thanks Don. I appreciate your comments. I am not a big believer of seasonality and instead I do believe that sentiment, combined with cash levels, short interest, options expirations and earnings price levels tell me the story of what is going on under the surface of the market. The "Sell in May" concept worked a long time ago and worked very well, but it has no logic and could be nullified in the long term going forward. I prefer to watch how a market reacts to news since it tells me more about supply and demand. Either way, I appreciate your comments. Tim
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