ok we're getting a recovery rally, but be aware tomorrow they could sell down to create one more low which I would think would be a bear trap. I can't say it's THE "bottom" but we could be starting to make a bottoming pattern here. RSI needs a reset, watch NQ and tech especially for an outperformance rally if I'm correct.
Good luck!
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if they sell the close, it may be like this.
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well damn they are selling it hard. If the idea is not correct, this is only 1 of 5 with 3 tomorrow/ overnight and 5 next week. Fooled me again if they don't save this overnight.
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NQ holding the line after AMZN earnings....
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they are holding the channel line - so far. That's nice and clear because if they hold it they will bounce and if they lose it tonight we're going lower.
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under 14150 on NQ overnight or tomorrow and we'll continue to sell.
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SPX futures just hit the 61.8 fib, if they are going to tank this overnight this is where it may stop...
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good morning, bounce held overnight but it's very weak. We could have one more low (red path on NQ) but if they can get over the middle trendline finally, we could rally hard today. I can't tell, but i do think we touch the trendline above regardless....
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edit - i think we touch the "yellow" trendline regardless - good luck
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they are getting close, If they reject from this level (about 14350 on NQ), we're going to make more lows.
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rejection so far from the yellow line, over it and it's bullish but right now looks bad.
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took a small short at the line, could be a black friday. tight stops
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looks like they are going to try hard to get over 14350 on nq but negative bearish divergences are building, one more attempt and failure should exhaust the bulls
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last gasp attempt failed, that should be the high for today if we are going lower
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if they get another high it will be to take out stops i think. The struggle is similar to a few days ago where they dropped down and then kept making little higher highs only to fail once stops were out.
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ok maybe that's it? it's like trying to reel in a marlin
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nope small time frame rsi pointing to another high
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they still don't look done at this battle line. I'm still thinking they ramp up to get above all the highs of today. Waiting with a small short, I will add if that happens. It's really getting ridiculous. Under 14300 and this will tank hard (NQ)
this is what's forming on NQ, I still favor one more high but it could drop
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lost it! waiting for a bounce then I'll add more
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i don't love the rsi here. I'm staying little for now. A fake breakdown could really ruin my day.
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tricks and traps
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5 minute rsi needs to get higher before a fall.
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they are going to push it hard to convince bears to drop positions, just wait
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here she comes
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if you are bullish as I was yesterday, this is looking like a breakout and COULD keep going. Because of the pattern and RSI I don't think so, but I can be wrong for sure. Please tread carefully either way.
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RSI reset enough but a little higher makes sense. Adding shorts slowly. WIll drop them for sure above 14400
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pushed it hard and close to 14400, shorts taken, Stops tight at 14430, hopefully I'm not wrong but I may be! If correct, the rest of the day is down, If wrong they get over 14400 on NQ
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last post till close, If wrong they keep pushing to over 14430 and I will lose. If correct it should sell down from here or maybe a wee bit higher. However, small time frame rsi is showing hidden bearish divergence and we are still forming lower highs. RSI on 30 minute is quite hot for a downtrend, so my logic tells me this is the peak. I will update later regardless if it's correct or not. GOod luck!
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bulls trying to hold the yellow line. I took some off in case they hold it but lowered stops for the rest. This is a decision point.
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decision made, should start to pick up speed,
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NQ in a channel, it's the clearest today for me so that's why I'm trading it. If it breaks the channel it's bearish. Could bounce to the high again and could also breakout so be aware of it.
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it could bounce to the high of the channel I mean
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broke already, they are starting to panic
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still pretty early, target on NQ looks like target may be 4100, not sure. With panic it can go under. Starting to look like this again. youtube.com/watch?v=RLySXTIBS3c
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channel now acting as resistance (for now.)
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NQ bear flag target 14075, maybe today, not sure.
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while we'll probably sell the close, be aware that SPX is in the head and shoulders target area 4100-4050
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spy - same thing
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if the close is a waterfall down it may be the end of the downtrend. Anything less and I think more selling for a few days next week.
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tis count on spy may be valid. I'm going home flat.
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tech is actually still positive on the day, I doubt it makes a lower low like SPY
@the_sunship what an amazing analysis! since we have reached the top for today is it highly likely we will go down from here next week ? or is the 2215 idea still valid ?
the_sunship
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@Fudo87, yeah most likely into Halloween but if they sell hard today, Sunday - monday may be a bounce. I have to see the panic into the close.
mthinakaran
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You are amazing, thanks for all your help
Ahmed-BH
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@the_sunship, This has been very hard to play. Only scalping today (in and out quick) -- don't like whipsawing!
the_sunship
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@alsafaj, wait for one more high then i think it drops. I've been scalping it too.
rae2468
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I believe events around the world are causing more disruption than normal.
the_sunship
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@rae2468, there are a few analysts I like who saw this coming weeks ago. I wasn't sure, but here we are. How is it they could predict the market movement without knowing what news was going to come?
burningcashrehab
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hey sunship, thanks for your breakdown. would you give me a good place to start learning about these a, b, c, waves you talk about. ild like to learn and im asking you if you can direct me to a good place to learn about it. thanks!
Ahmed-BH
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@burningcashrehab, @the_sunship, likewise here. Would love to grasp principles. Elliot wave is way too complicated to me and would probably require lots of practice for me!