DaddySawbucks
Short

RUT: AMERICA'S REAL STOCK MARKET IS BEAR

AMEX:IWM   ISHARES TRUST
Trades in a descending wedge channel all year. Former R now = S. NB: 0.618 Fib repeatedly rejected. Blue box marks pivot target; may reject sooner.
Trade active: Shorted in the Nov 29 194P. Got 25 bear spreads against 01 Nov 150P.

Might have a bit lfet to run but never know. Rollover will be sharp & sudden.
Trade active: I'm short in IWM Nov 156 puts. Looks like rollover imminent; been fooled before but got mhy skin in this game!
Trade active: Nearly touched 156 Friday; real close to rollover here; added and doubled down, GLTA!

VIX sub-13 near breakout IMO. Got calls on UVXY, Nov 21s. When the selling starts these will rocket, it moves really, really fast- expect >30 in November. Last week UVXY moved $6 in one session, you do not want to be short VIX calls! Calls could be 10-bangers; the break will be swift and sudden!
Trade active: Added on the monster rally. Holding out for FOMC response. GLTA!
Trade active: RUT fades into the close. IWM well off HOTD. QQQ made a new ATH; it looks like a Go-Go rally in Tech Fan Club stocks, low volume, more issues declining than advancing in broader market. Holding on to these shorts!

Action over next two days will confirm whether this be an exhaustion gap island and get left above.
Trade closed manually: Action after the FED action is bullish. Might reverse but R/R is poor; stopped out and preserved a nice gain!
Comment: RUT and DJT are divergent, Trans off -200 while the FAANGs climb= bad.

Breadth is poor and broader market is negative, distribution is ongoing; from Yahoo today:

Although the Big 3 stock market indexes have swung higher, in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, broader market breadth remains negative. The number of declining stock outnumbered advancers 1,512 to 1,341 on the NYSE and 1,611 to 1,262 on the Nasdaq exchange. And volume in declining stocks represents 57.8% of the total volume on the Big Board and 60.1% on the Nasdaq. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 80 points, or 0.3%, with 20 of 30 components gaining ground. The S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite tacked on 0.2%.

Comments

Kudos to chinawildman for noticing the Vix is in narrowing triangle, closing in on a breakout soon IMO:



Link to idea;


You can play this with UVXY calls, this is the 3x ETF, because the price at $19 now is similar to VIX sub-$13, when VIX gains $2 UVXY pops $6.
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How about now? Triple down? I just got iwm puts
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DaddySawbucks Shortatwill
@Shortatwill, I added
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DaddySawbucks Shortatwill
@Shortatwill, I closed in the morning drawdown but notice at EOD how RUT and IWM did not enjoy the late day rally? Because:

"volume in declining stocks represents 57.8% of the total volume on the Big Board and 60.1% on the Nasdaq"

I'll be shorting again real soon- IMO it's within 1% of the ultimate top here.
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yep...entire market is about to rollover, they can save it one more time at around 200 day for attempt at another ally. It's strange that IWM is making a zigzag structure but SPX looks more like a flat.
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DaddySawbucks Sintar123
@Sintar123, If you look at SP400 its the same structure. ADvancers < Decliners in SP500, a handful carry the index higher while most issueas are lagging. This price divergence is extremely Bearish; see Mark Rivest post on it!

NYSE 52 - week highs on 10/21/19 were 289
10/22/19 were 294
10/24/19 were 253 - bearish divergence
10/25/19 were 230 double bearish divergence

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If I had to choose an index fund to short today, this would be it. Gonna wait until tomorrow though because futures are set for a pump and dump.
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DaddySawbucks hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, I started short entry today but be careful; this thing got really bullish in September. Rotation out of NQ > RUT. If they do it again...
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hungry_hippo DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, I'm not shorting any indices. Did short DE but for a quick one or two day trade.

I expect a gap up tomorrow or Wed, that's how the algos work, pump and dump. You gotta let them pump it first.
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DaddySawbucks hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, My strat is hold deep ITM long term puts and trade short dailies on these swings.

Been working well but when it breaks the dailies triple so gotta roll out pdq! That's why ppl buy them lol!
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