If you look here the candles a warning was made by the hammer (the very candle when you published) this kind of candles when confirmed by a suppor formed by another bullsh reversal thend to be serious support when come from a decline which is loosing momentum. Good Job, best regards.
since 2007 have you ever seen a more intense situation or ever heard and read more divergence of views which way this market is going? Not me. Classic chart pattern faking a lot. I keep telling myself to trust the charts, but my gut tells me be careful. Like your XLF chart. But like you have said, XLF doesn't have to keep track with the broader markets. And yet the VIX has not jumped. Lot of respect for your charting and posts, wouldn't ,mind seeing your Monday update on this chart. Thanks for posting.
I think what we have here is simply US growth priced in. So IWM & QQQ are correcting. Now, if growth is priced in - where does one look? Perhaps EEM. Look at that chart. Doing pretty well, right? The SPX has been holding on well enough for a couple of reasons: dividends, and exposure to emerging markets. I don't understand why I have not seen this simple idea in the twitter blog-sphere, but it's my point of view. However, we WILL run into valuation problems once again. There's no difference between a tech or small cap trading at a 100p/e than a Dow stock that has little growth trading at a 20 p/e. Eventually, people may find that risky as well. JMO.
Agree on EEM. Also M&A activity another treading water value added play. Heard this - interesting and I agree... XLY acting poorly - changing to a new normal, US consumer changing, 75% of GDP, might eventually normal out at 65%? Baby boomers spend less, especially the early retirees dropping out of the employment picture. BUT that is the US not EEM. Also, some consumers left from great depression era "remember" and are scared to spend. Others that have been financially shocked by the great recession saving more, spending less, i.e. walmart poor forward guidance, less credit (even if they lessen the credit standards for borrowing, people have hunkered down and learned how to live now 5 years or more without it). There's more, but the point is, thinking of buying puts before target reports this week, and Fresh market, following what whole foods and walmart did. Same idea, dif copmpanies I know, but same consumer issues.