TARGETS ABOVE & BELOW

The market is still in its month long trading range. The odds still favor a new high, but every day that fails to get there reduces the probability.

Even if the bulls get a new high, it will probably not go far. The bears need a good reversal set-up; like some form of a double top, and a big bear bar. Then they have a chance of at least a few days of selling.

A bull breakout will probably not get far. A bear breakout will probably reverse back up from a significant support level. See chart for targets. The market will probably reach both targets (new high and a sell off) in the next month or two. It is currently deciding which direction will be first.

Comment:

1-26 This week has been strongly Bullish. Yesterday's 5 minute chart was sideways but Bullish. The odds were that today would continue to weaken. And today was a trading range (sideways) Bear day (on the 5 minute chart).

The rally has been strong this week, and the bulls will probably buy the first reversal down. This is probable even if there is more pullback and/or sideways trading. The odds still favor higher prices.

Have only been day trading since 12-12.