It's possible to count 5 waves down and a 3 wave retrace (the 8 wave pattern for entry) on the 5min chart. The problem is it's well short of the normal 618 retrace for a wave 2 (or B). The market can head down now, or this can simply be a complex retracement, in which case we'll see another abc
. Going short right here will have the most risk, with the stop at the weekly highs. For me, that means either going short on a new intraday low (and chasing), or waiting for my initial target of 115.66.
Ideally, I want it to hit that 618 target, and then break back through the cloud. Risk management is easiest from there, using cloud resistance as a stop.