Have for some time found it likely that bitcoin would bottom out (flat) like in 2014-16 however possibly faster. The problem I have with this though is that with all the attention bitcoin has now (compared to 2014-2016) it feels a bit wrong in a way to have a long flat price period (however still possible of course). Many people has compared the Dotcom bubble with bitcoins run up to 20k so maybe a NASDAQ style bottom is actually more likely than a flat 2014-16 style bottom?
The graphs tries to illustrate some rough possible similarities between NASDAQ Y2K crash and BTC’s latest crash from 20k. BTC’s crash up until today has lasted about halt a year. In the comparison I am making NASDAQ used about 2.5 year to reach the point I am suggesting bitcoin might be at. NASDAQ graph is 5M EMA and BTC graph (below) is 25D EMA.
Apart from the exponential rally of both assets there are also some similarity in rallies on the way down illustrated with the three white arrows. Furthermore a long term support line (green trend line) can be drawn for both assets. The point in time I am suggesting we might be at is where this support line has been broken to the downside. I have moved the potential next bull run of BTC a bit forward compared to the NASDAQ as I have taken a way the 2008 crisis.
Please share your opinions below. Would really like hear your comments on this comparison.