markrivest
Short

US Election Could Trigger Next Decline

TVC:IXIC   NASDAQ COMPOSITE
25 1 4
The Nasdaq has the clearest wave count of the main US stock indices and appears to require at least one more decline to complete the Elliott wave pattern. The highest probable count is a double zigzag down from the 9/22/16 peak. If the pattern is correct it will retrace to at least the 11/4/16 bottom at 5034.40.

Early on 11/8/16 the Nasdaq could rally to the area of the illustrated 50% retracement levels.

The likely catalyst for the next decline is the result of the US presidential election.
It's clear the US stock market is bullish for a Clinton victory, bearish on a Trump victory.

Normally political analysis would be beyond the scope of market analysis, in this case it is vital to help in determining what could happen in the stock market .

On the surface it may appear impossible to estimate who could win the US presidential election, if you dig underneath the surface the winner can be determined.

The enthusiasm gap between Trump and Clinton is as wide as the Grand Canyon!
All of Trumps rallies have been attended by thousands sometime tens of thousands of supporters.
Clinton, who has held far fewer rallies is drawing mostly hundreds of supporters.

There is a high probability that Trump will win the US presidential election, this is not factored in the market and if he does win the decline in stocks could be severe.

Mark
tomj2417 PRO
a month ago
Going to be very interesting Mark, thats for sure.......and I'm not even an American!
Reply
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