timwest
Short

DJ Transports Ishares -IYT -Daily - Nearly half-way back bounce

AMEX:IYT   ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGEETF
318 11 6
ITY is nearly back up to the half-way back level here. The 50% speed-line is the dotted line pushing down on the price here, giving us a reference line for a drop off the high at half-the-speed of the drop to the low.

Ebola scare softening?
Falling oil             prices helping?
Options expiration forcing shorts to cover?

Weakening economic forecasts might take another swipe at the DJ Transports in the next week. I think it makes sense to put out shorts here and look for a retest.

Tim 11:11AM Friday 145.80 +2.06 last IYT            

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Hit the sell zone on Monday.
+2 Reply
2use timwest
Went pass by a whole range just now almost +2%...too much confidence?
Reply
I am ok with the advance. It was a spectacular decline, so the advance/bounce on a lack of ebola news is equally strong. I'm going to give it a little bit of room from here. I still like it short. I'd be adding here. Risk 1 ATR from here. 150 last. Risk to 153.
+1 Reply
2use timwest
Given you noted ebola. What is your exposure to the ebola related stocks? I already missed the Lake run, and some still doing hefty 20% runs a day. I once missed the marijuana run as well - seems that i need to react faster to the news, even with a small portion of my money.

PS - just a humble thanx today from me on your prompt replies =)
Reply
I have no exposure to those ebola names, but I watch them. LAKE has been active. I have medical stocks as a core to my portfolio. Basic, boring medical stocks like WST, JNJ, ABT, ABBV. These make up a good chunk of my portfolio.
+1 Reply
I appreciate your appreciation. This IYT play was a bit more volatile, thanks to the Chinese GDP numbers coming in stronger and frankly, the drop in crude oil, and the reduction in ebola outbreak news. But there is a level that these things stall out. The fact is that travelling is going to get cut back in this soft economy.
+2 Reply
2use timwest
I agree on the time they stall - learned that the hard way during spring (russia, sanctions, political tensions).
Reply
Here's the update:
snapshot
Reply
2use timwest
That is a lot of room. but ill keep this image saved for reference - good to check this from time to time
Reply
The risk is less than the reward overall, if you can add up here at these black lines. Not a "great" trade overall (averaging the red box entry and the black lines entry, Roughly 149 average entry, 153 stop (4 pts) and 142 and 137 target = 10+ pts target. If we can be right 40% of the time on these trades, it will work out in the long run.
+3 Reply
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