I initially predicted a 17% decline on JSE TOP40, the move is well in motion. See link below
South Africa has had one of the worse lockdowns in response to covid19 and it resulted in a reported decline of 51% in GDP. The unemployment numbers and number of business bankrupted are not yet publicly available. South Africa also increased its USD debt during this crisis and in a lot of ways money meant for economic recovery was lost to corruption. During this period there's also been increases in social grants and introduction of new ones despite the decrease in production.
When more of the data becomes available i think the stock market will keep falling further, though i doubt new lows could be made, but i am very convinced the we could see prices falling to a range of about 34,000 - 35,000.
Hi, TradingWithTheTrend, spot on about dismal economy of from the drag of this "Shithole" that SA has become. But the T40 revenue is only partly dependent on domestic productivity, or the lack of it. Last I read about 75% of T40 revenue is earned overseas. Take the top 5 companies for example. Q is , do you still hold that plunge targets for our J200 ?
TradingWithTheTrend
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@jnlombard, I wasn't aware that 75% is from overseas, but I think that creates another bad situation because the prolonged lockdowns on most exports took a hit, and I'd imagine that some of the countries South Africa trades with they locked their boarders as well for some products. That means these companies need to find new sources of foreign exchange currency to sell their rands to pay off suppliers if they have foreign suppliers, which would be bad for ZAR (I do not have a technical set up for ZAR but I am bias shorts)
I have no definite targets at the moment, but technically, there aren't significant support levels that I see that would stop the crash, maybe 45000, but I am not sold on it. At the moment what I'd suggest is simply exiting the stock market, hold tether or usd, the market will provide set ups with good R:R for trading, and I would only trade then.
My opinion and plan, not financial advice
TradingWithTheTrend
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@TradingWithTheTrend, This is my opinion on ZAR long term though, not that I am trading it